University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor Barry Burden gave his forecast for the contentious 2026 midterm elections at a “Badger Talk” Wednesday, discussing the potential outcomes for the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 U.S. Senate seats up for election in November.
The Badger Talk was part of the Global Affairs and the Media course offered by the Participatory Learning and Teaching Organization. PLATO offers a variety of courses for retired communities to continue learning and making new connections.
Burden used his analytical research of election patterns to forecast the upcoming elections. He said despite unprecedented circumstances surrounding issues like immigration, affordability and the economy, Americans should expect to see the same familiar patterns as previous midterm elections.
“There are certainly some exceptional elements, but it's surprising how little they matter in the end relative to the standard,” Burden said.
The Senate
One-third of all Senate seats will be on the ballot this year. Burden said the Senate will be much harder to flip for Democrats.
Republicans currently have a three-seat majority, plus Vice President JD Vance’s vote in the event of a tie. However, missing out on a Senate majority might not be a big problem for Democrats.
“Being the majority in the Senate’s actually not worth much anyway,” Burden said. “It’s a body that now requires 60 votes to do anything because of the threat of the filibuster.”
In order to flip the Senate, Democrats would have to hold all their current seats, while also reaching into Republican-leaning districts to gain seats. According to Burden, that will prove difficult.
“It's not impossible that Democrats could get to 51 or 52 or 53 seats, but everything would have to go exactly their way,” Burden said.
The House
All House seats will be up for re-election, as they are every two years. According to his research, Burden said the sitting President’s party typically loses 25 House seats in the midterms — however, this year that number might be hard to reach.
The Cook Political Report’s House Race ratings assess the competitiveness of all 435 house elections. According to the CPR, there are only 18 house seats that are considered “toss-ups.” Currently, 14 of those seats are held by Republicans. If Democrats win the seats they are expected to win, Burden said they would only need seven of those 18 tossup seats to reach a majority.
“Republicans are in a defensive posture [for House seats],” Burden said. “They have more incumbents they need to defend who are in some vulnerable places.”
One of those seats is Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district, where incumbent Congressman Derrick Van Orden will face Democrat Rebbeca Cooke for the second time.
Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional race has gotten national attention, with Bernie Sanders visiting Western Wisconsin last August and Vance appearing in the district Thursday.
“If the Democrats don’t win [Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district], they’re not winning the House of Representatives,” Burden said.
Wisconsin races
With Tony Evers’ decision to not seek a third term, Wisconsin voters will see two new, non-incumbent, names on the gubernatorial ballot this year for the first time since 2010.
There are several candidates campaigning for the Democratic nomination, with the primary on August 11. Early polling found former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is leading in name recognition but is essentially tied with state Rep. Francesca Hong, D-Madison, as leading Democratic candidates. However, Burden emphasized the nomination is very much still up for grabs, with most voters polling undecided.
U.S. representative for Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district Tom Tiffany is the only candidate in the Republican field, following an endorsement from President Donald Trump and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann’s decision to drop out of the race in January.
As for the state legislature, all 99 Assembly seats are on the ballot, as well as half the state senate seats. Many of those seats are in districts that were redrawn in 2024. For the Assembly, this will be the second election with those new districts, but for the Senate’s seats, this is the first election that will be affected by new maps.
“There are Republican incumbents [in the Senate],” Burden said. “But some of them are facing voters they have not faced before, and three of those Senate incumbents are in districts that Kamala Harris won.”
Midterm impact
One point Burden continued to return to was that Congress has been largely ineffective or unnecessary in Trump’s second term.
“Basically everything that's happening in Washington is unilateral,” Burden said. “It's coming out of the Trump administration or the Department of Justice or Education or Department of Defense. He hasn’t needed Congress.”
However, according to Burden, flipping the House for Democrats would mean gaining control over committees and getting the ability to initiate hearings on topics concerning corruption, the Epstein Files, federal contracting and other controversial matters. He said that kind of visibility would be used to position the Democrats for the next presidential election in 2028.
Still, Burden said he expects the political posturing and congressional stalemates to continue, even if Democrats control the House for the last two years of Trump’s term. “I don't think there's going to be any real lawmaking happening,” he said.
