A couple weeks into the season, if you would’ve told me the Wisconsin basketball team would be in the hunt to make the NCAA Tournament, I would’ve thought you were crazy. Yet, here we are in early February and the Badgers are starting to come up in bubble talks.
Some people are skeptical of the team’s legitimacy and, with the terrible home losses to Western Illinois, Milwaukee and Marquette, they have a point. However, after a four-game Big Ten winning streak, including a pair of wins over ranked teams, I believe the Badgers still have a shot at making the Big Dance.
In my view, Wisconsin’s nine remaining games fall into three distinct categories. First, there are must-win games. If they lose one of these, they have too many bad losses to make it to March Madness. Second, there are games the Badgers should win, but they might not be counted out if they lose them. Third, there are the games that would be resume-building wins, but a loss is expected.
Wisconsin’s next two games fall into the must-win territory. Matchups with Ohio State and Nebraska, both of which will be played at home, are mediocre squads. That said, they are both around Wisconsin’s 13-9 record, Ohio State a half-game better, Nebraska being one game worse. Not only would a win look good, it could also potentially knock these teams out of the bubble conversation, and vice versa if UW falters.
The other two must-win games are contests against Illinois at home and Minnesota on the road. If Wisconsin loses to either of these Big Ten bottom-feeders, they will slip into the realm of obscurity.
There are two games the Badgers should win, but a loss in these games likely wouldn’t hurt too badly. Michigan will make their way to the Kohl Center in late February, which will give UW a winnable game against an upper-tier Big Ten squad that hasn’t looked indestructible. A loss might push them out of contention, but at the same time, there isn’t much shame in losing to a quality team that is playing well in conference.
The same goes for the Badgers’ final regular-season matchup with Purdue, a team that has bounced in and out of the top 15 all season. Getting a quality road win would do good things for Wisconsin’s chances, but a loss to a quality team doesn’t doom their season.
The final categories are games UW is expected to lose, but would be great resume-building wins. This consists of road games against Maryland, Michigan State and Iowa, three top-10 teams that are undeniably the most talented in the conference. If Wisconsin loses all three, it is to be expected, but if the Badgers want to get into the tourney, they will likely need to win at least one of these three games and not get blown out in the other two.
When it comes to the conference tournament, Wisconsin would likely need to win two or three games, depending on the matchups, to bolster their chances to go dancing. A first-round loss would be the final nail in the coffin.
Wisconsin is a program that has been consistently solid for well over a decade, making a trip to the last seventeen NCAA Tournaments, and that name recognition could help them. However, ultimately the team needs to prove it on the court, and the stars will need to align in the later parts of the year to make up for the squad’s early season stumbles.
Do you think Wisconsin has a chance to make it to the Big Dance? Let Andrew know at ajtucker@wisc.edu.
