Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley leads Republican candidate and U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, 49% to 46% among likely voters, according to the latest Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 16 to Sept. 23. It has a sample size of 843 registered voters and 692 likely voters, and has a 4.3% margin of error among registered voters and 4.8% among likely voters.
Crowley also leads Tiffany among all registered voters with 46% to 45% in the poll.
The Democratic Party leads the generic ballot for the Wisconsin State Legislature with a similar makeup, with 48% of likely voters to the Republican Party’s 45%, and a 46% to 45% lead among registered voters.
However, Tiffany leads Crowley with favorability, in a major change from the August poll. Crowley is at -13 favorability while Tiffany is at -5. Crowley had a +4 point favorability rating in the previous poll, while Tiffany sat at -6.
This follows large amounts of ad spending by the Tiffany campaign and its backers. Crowley and PACs supporting him have spent at least $20.9 million since the Aug. 11 primary, while Tiffany and his backers have spent at least $29.8 million over the same period.
Tiffany has raised over twice as much as Crowley since July, receiving most of his donations from three billionaire donors through the Republican Party of Wisconsin.
Crowley makes up for the low favorability rating with a 26-point lead among independents. He is only four points behind Tiffany in the greater Milwaukee media market which excludes the city of Milwaukee and includes the historically conservative ‘WOW’ counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington.
The WOW counties have trended toward Democrats in recent elections, and Crowley performed strongly in all three during the August primary.
Crowley is seen as more moderate than Tiffany with 17% of voters describing him as moderate, 33% saying he’s liberal, 30% calling him very liberal with 17% unsure of his leaning.
Tiffany meanwhile is considered as moderate by only 6% of voters, considered conservative by 38% and very conservative by 40%, with 15% unsure of his leaning.
Tiffany has attempted to distance himself from President Donald Trump, like certifying the 2020 presidential election, as the president and his policies have become increasingly unpopular in the past month.
Trump's approval rating has declined two points among Wisconsin voters since the previous Marquette Law School poll, dropping from 40% in August to 38% in the most recent poll.
This is driven largely by economic concerns. Inflation and the cost of living is seen as the most important issue in the election by 45% of voters, and 65% of voters say Trump’s policies have made inflation worse according to the poll.
The war in Iran, which has contributed to rising gas prices across the state, also remains broadly unpopular in Wisconsin with only 23% of voters in the Marquette poll saying it is worth the cost.
Tiffany voted in favor of the war five times, however he is now calling for its end.
Dominic Violante is a senior staff writer for The Daily Cardinal.
