With over a year left on the clock, the 2024 election looms on the horizon like a marathon yet to begin. As the contenders stretch and limber up behind the scenes, the nation braces itself for another race to the White House.
In the key swing state of Wisconsin, the stakes are particularly high. The state has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 2008 and is expected to play a decisive role in the 2024 race.
“[Wisconsin’s] role in the 2024 election is alongside two demographically similar states that have traditionally voted to the left of Wisconsin: Michigan and Pennsylvania,” said Galen Metzger, a self-described liberal “election watcher” and University of Colorado-Denver student. “Wisconsin now sits in an interesting position: a Democratic win in Wisconsin is almost certainly a knock-out punch to Republican chances on election night, a Republican win is a necessary but not sufficient condition for any Republican candidate.”
So, without wasting any more time, let's delve into way-too-early insights into what's brewing in this crucial battleground state.
Who will face off against Joe Biden?
On the Democratic presidential side, the race is everything but open. No incumbent president has debated a primary opponent since Gerald Ford, a streak all but guaranteed to continue as challengers Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. struggle to find traction.
For the GOP, former President Donald Trump has consistently led polls, and the latest polling from Ipsos gives the thrice-indicted former President 47% of the total vote, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis following with 13%.
Metzger said it’s hard to see how another Republican candidate would put together a coalition to beat Trump, but Trump’s legal troubles are an unpredictable liability that could shake up the race.
“The current runner-up has recently made headlines for retweeting a video with a Sonnerad, telling a little girl that her Icee had too much sugar, and failing to attract more than two dozen attendees in New Hampshire to a campaign event with almost-free beer,” Metzger said. “No one else is polling above ten percent right now.”
Can any candidate pose a threat to Biden?
Only ten presidents have lost in pursuit of a second term. In an Aug. 1 NYT/Siena Poll, Biden and Trump found themselves tied with 43 percent support each.
In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.77%. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 0.68%.
“While polling shows a competitive race between Trump and Biden as of now, most voters are still not actively considering their options — and independent voters swung hard to Democrats in 2022,” said Metzger.
How will the race play out in Wisconsin?
Like much of the country, Wisconsin Democrats need increased turnout in blue-trending urban and suburban centers to offset Republican gains in rural areas.
The GOP may want to seek the opposite, Metzger said.
“Rural trends that foresaw Democratic collapse in the Driftless and in the far north stalled out, whereas suburban blueshift in the Milwaukee suburbs has kicked into overdrive,” said Metzger. “For Republicans to win the state, they have to juice up the margins in the smaller cities… and keep suburban losses to a minimum.”
Still, Wisconsin state Rep. Francesca Hong, D-Madison, argues Democrats shouldn’t lose focus on rural communities.
“We haven't been supporting our rural organizers enough," said Hong. “I'm hopeful that the party will resource them properly.”
Rural trends did not hurt the Democrats' last election — the spring 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election resulted in an 11-point win for liberal candidate Janet Protasiewicz.
But it’s not a guarantee of future success, Metzger warned.
“The persuasion levels… are ominous signs for the WIGOP, but these elections have had electorates that have higher education levels and social engagement than what will show up in 2024,” Metzger said. “These electorates, in addition to being slightly more overall dem than 2024 may be, also featured disproportionately many persuadable college-educated suburban Republicans to non-college Democrats.”
How is each party preparing?
On July 24th, the GOP chose Wisconsin as the first state for their national Bank Your Vote initiative. The initiative, touted by GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, encourages Republicans to vote early and by mail.
“Early voting is a priority for Wisconsin College Republicans — it’s convenient, hassle-free and more secure than ever thanks to the GOP,” said Ali Beneker, co-chair of the University of Wisconsin-Madison College Republicans.
The initiative runs contrary to previous doubts expressed by prominent Republicans about early voting.
“How come every time they count Mail-In ballot dumps they are so devastating?” Trump tweeted on Nov. 4th, 2020.
Attention from the GOP isn’t new to Wisconsin — conservative groups spent over $17 million for Republican-backed Dan Kelly in the off-year Supreme Court election, breaking spending records.
“It’s an honor to have so much attention on Wisconsin this election cycle — Republicans are well aware that the road to victory starts and ends in our great state,” Beneker said. “Wisconsin College Republicans see our party’s attention on Wisconsin as an opportunity to showcase everything our state has to offer.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are counting on younger voters to spearhead a victory.
“[We’re showing] up on college campuses, [making] sure that we're going to youth-led events, talking in high schools… about the importance of getting involved early,” Hong said.
Democrats are also counting on the Dobbs ruling to energize pro-choice voters in the state, something Metzger said helped them mitigate losses to the GOP in the 2022 midterms.
“I see [Republicans] having weaknesses in reaching women, especially with their controversial stance on abortion,” Hong said. “They continue to rely on fear-mongering and hate to mobilize communities.”
What else should Wisconsinites pay attention to?
Along with the presidential election, Sen. Tammy Balwin, D-Wis., is up for reelection, a race where Republicans face an uphill battle. No major GOP candidate has declared for the race as of yet.
“Baldwin has been able to grow a coalition amongst Wisconsinites all across the state… she is looking very strong and right now has no formal opponent,” Hong said.
However, Beneker believes Baldwin can be defeated.
“Tammy Baldwin’s Senate seat is not safe,” Beneker said. “Baldwin has moved in lockstep with Joe Biden’s failed administration, and that won’t be forgotten at the polls next November.”
And with a gerrymandering case coming up for the newly liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court, more could be at play.
New maps could unlock the state Senate and Assembly to create more favorable pickup opportunities for Democrats.
“We're looking forward to uplifting progressive candidates across the state, making sure they know they have an elected ally and helping them with their campaigns,” Hong said. “I think if we have a diverse slate of candidates, we're going to be looking even stronger for ‘24.”
The GOP isn’t backing down, however.
“We’ve learned from past elections that college students truly have the power to determine election results in battleground Wisconsin,” Beneker said. “We’re dedicating time in 2023 to build a team of students that will hit the ground running next year to mobilize the countless Republican voters here on campus."
Jasper Bernstein is the Associate News Editor for The Daily Cardinal. Follow him on Twitter at @jasperberns.
