The gap between incumbent Gov. Jim Doyle and Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Green is closing, according to the most recent Rasmussen Reports election survey. The electronic polling firm shows Green within three points of Doyle, a significant decrease from last month's eight-point gap.
The poll gave Green, of Green Bay, his highest numbers so far in the race, with 44 percent to Doyle's 47 percent. The Green campaign credits the increase to growing disapproval of Doyle's handling of the economy, including high taxes, loss of jobs and increased UW-Madison tuition.
""This survey is further proof that the race for governor is a dead heat and that momentum is clearly on the side of Mark Green,"" Green's campaign manager Mark Graul said in a statement.
But critics disagree and credit the jump in Green's numbers to disapproval in the ongoing ethics controversies within the Doyle administration, rather than any increased approval for Green.
The investigation into state employee Georgia Thompson, who illegally steered a state contract to a Doyle campaign contributor, has created a public image problem for the governor. E-mails from Doyle's lawyer Michael Maistelman urging Democratic-appointed members of the Election Board to declare Green's Political Action Committee money transfers illegal, though not unlawful, have also raised ethical questions for the incumbent.
Jay Heck, executive director for Common Cause Wisconsin, a non-partisan reform group said, ""No hands are clean in this race, and I think ultimately the winner will be the one who's perceived to be slightly less dirty than the other one.""
While Heck said the Green campaign will stress the poll as being significant, there is still nearly a month to go until election day and millions left in both campaigns' war chests.
Though campaign funding will play a large part in the last month leading up the election, Wisconsin Democracy Campaign Director Mike McCabe said evidence in Green's latest court case suggests Green may have violated a federal law when he transferred $1.3 million from his federal account to his state campaign. As of now, only $468,000 is being investigated in court.
The Doyle campaign remains confident despite the dwindling gap.
""Polls go up and polls go down, but we feel really good about where we are, and the governor's going to keep doing what he's doing,"" said Anne Lupardus, Doyle's deputy spokesperson.
Whatever the reason, a close race is predicted all the way to elections.
""Wisconsin is one of the most closely divided partisan states in the country,"" Heck said. ""It's just a few votes that separate Republicans from Democrats in races for statewide office.""
