College football’s return has finally crept up on the nation and left fans and pundits scrambling to predict the outcome of the season. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has turned every viewer into a psychic for the third year in a row, and with all four spots in the playoffs wide open, everyone thinks their team has what it takes. Spoiler alert: They don’t.
In a league with 128 teams, making a four-team playoff is hard. If every team in the country were equally good, they would each have about a 3 percent chance of being chosen to play for a national championship. Of course, every team isn’t equal. Some teams will be great every year, while others are doomed to wallow in misery for eternity (hello, Kansas).
Arguably the best projection system for college football is ESPN’s FPI, or football power index. As expected, the top end of the list is very SEC-heavy. Of the top seven teams, four are SEC schools. There are some perennials (No. 5 LSU and No. 1 Alabama) and some newcomers (Ole Miss and Tennessee), but just like every preseason, the SEC looks poised to dominate.
The Volunteers are easily the most intriguing team to eclipse the top 10. They were consistently highly ranked by FPI last season but finished the year with a 9-4 record following a rough 3-4 opening to the season. Those four losses, however, came by just 17 total points and against some of the top teams in the country.
Tennessee now looks forward to a relatively easy schedule that includes a few opportunities for signature wins at No. 18 Georgia and at home against Alabama, which would put them in prime position to sneak into the playoffs.
Elsewhere, No. 4 Florida State lays claim to the highest FPI score in the country. The Seminoles made a strong push at the end of last season but didn’t have a strong enough resume to justify a spot in the final four. This year, they come into the season with a top-five AP ranking and look like one of the most dangerous teams in the nation.
FSU is lead by dynamic running back Dalvin Cook, who burst onto the scene last year with nearly 1,700 yards and 19 touchdowns, finishing seventh in Heisman voting. His productivity is backed by a stifling defense which might roll through the ACC like No. 2 Clemson last season.
Wisconsin clocks in at just 37th in FPI, their lowest preseason rating in quite some time. The loss of starting quarterback Joel Stave certainly plays a role, although this team will rely primarily on running back Corey Clement and a stiff defense to win games. A ruthless schedule puts the Badgers in a precarious position, and wins will be hard to come by.
The No. 7 Michigan Wolverines have the highest FPI score of any Big Ten team despite being ranked one spot behind No. 6 Ohio State in the AP Poll. They have the easiest schedule of any team in the top 30, but their three toughest games all come on the road against No. 12 Michigan State, No. 17 Iowa and the Buckeyes.
As with every season, there is a slew of teams with the potential to take home CFP National Championship Trophy. As the season unfolds, those that really have a shot will begin to separate themselves. Until then, though, all there is to do is sit back and watch.
