U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison, leads former Governor Tommy Thompson by three percentage points, according to the latest results from Public Policy Polling, in a U.S. Senate race that has become one of the most competitive in the country.
49 percent of respondents in PPP’s survey conducted from October 4-6 said they support Baldwin in the November election compared to 46 percent for Thompson. Baldwin has maintained a three- to four-point advantage in all three of PPP’s Wisconsin polls since Labor Day.
As previous PPP surveys have shown, Thompson’s low favorability rating could be his undoing. Just 43 percent of Wisconsin voters hold a positive view of Thompson, while 50 percent view him negatively, which comes as somewhat of a surprise given he was a popular four-term governor of the state a decade ago.
Meanwhile, Baldwin’s edge among independent voters continues to serve as a welcome boost for her campaign. Though Thompson has attempted to define Baldwin as outside of the mainstream and the most liberal member of Congress, independents still favor her 52 percent to 40 percent.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
It its analysis of the survey, PPP, a Democratic firm, said Baldwin looks like “the nominal favorite” to win the race with the election four weeks away because she has been able to hold a consistent lead over the past several weeks, even as President Barack Obama has slipped recently in the state.
The most recent Marquette Law School poll paints a similar picture of the race, showing Baldwin up 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.
Many credit Baldwin’s takeover in the polls to the 2-1 television advertising spending advantage her campaign and allies held over Thompson and the groups backing him in the month-long period after the August primary.
But after a sluggish September, Thompson is expected to hit the campaign trail hard in the final sprint leading up to November 6 with a reloaded warchest. Add two more debates on top of that and this race, which could ultimately determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, should remain a nail-biter all the way through.
