After a year of political controversy across Wisconsin, Tuesday will mark the first round of elections in an historic gubernatorial recall process.
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, the two frontrunners in the Democratic primary, have campaigned across the state, hoping to run against Gov. Scott Walker in a general recall election June 5.
Both candidates have similar positions on most state issues, but differ on their plans for what is likely the most contentious one: restoring collective bargaining for public sector workers. Falk’s staunch stance won her the support and monetary backing of labor unions, while Barrett stayed moderate with a multi-step process that garnered him contributions from individual state donors.
State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, D-Alma, and Secretary of State Doug La Follette, the two other candidates in the primary, are running less prominent campaigns.
Collective bargaining has been a focal point in Wisconsin politics since Walker introduced Act 10 in February, a bill that eliminated most public workers’ access to the negotiations. It has also led to a well-heeled campaign on all sides, with donations pouring in from contributors from inside Wisconsin and elsewhere.
Political science professor Barry Burden said the primary hinges on two issues: electability and collective bargaining.
“It is still about who can win in a general election against Walker, but also about what the most reasonable approach might be to dealing with collective bargaining once a Democrat were in office,” said Burden.
Reversing Act 10
Falk, who Burden said is considered the more aggressive candidate, said the best way to restore collective bargaining is to include the repairs in the state budget. Some politicians disagreed with Falk’s plan, suggesting such a strong move could lead to a stalemate in an already polarized state government.
But many union members see Falk’s stance as the only way.
“If you don’t have a governor who is committed to restoring collective bargaining then it won’t get done in the budget. You’ve got to be strong on it in order to get it done,” Falk said.
Most of the state’s largest unions, like Wisconsin’s AFL-CIO, chose to endorse and contribute to Falk’s campaign because of her position.
Conversely, Barrett proposed a multi-faceted system to restoring collective bargaining.
Barrett said he would start by calling a special session of the state legislature. If Democrats were elected in the Senate recalls, which are scheduled for the same day as the gubernatorial recall, Barrett said his plan would pass the Senate and gain votes from Assembly Republicans influenced by the Democratic swing in state politics.
“There were some Assembly Republicans who voted against [Act 10] last time. I believe that there would be even more Assembly Republicans that would support the restoration of collective bargaining rights now,” Barrett said in an interview May 3.
If calling a special session does not work, Barrett said he planned to introduce reparations through a freestanding bill while simultaneously tying them to the budget bill.
“To me, the issue is not so much the vehicle, the issue is getting to the destination,” Barrett said.
Burden said Barrett’s emphasis on compromise makes him the more moderate candidate, adding Barrett has a more realistic plan for restoring collective bargaining.
“I think Barrett’s approach is probably more feasible,” Burden said. “If you separate the issues, you could have one discussion about the budget and a separate discussion about collective bargaining rights.”
Barrett received the majority of his donations from individual in-state donors. Wisconsin Democracy Campaign Executive Director Mike McCabe said this gives Barrett a more independent image.
The advantages (and pitfalls) of union support
Falk, who declared her candidacy soon after signatures to recall Walker were officially collected in January, was the frontrunner in the race until Barrett decided to run in late March. Since then, Barrett gradually picked up support and took a lead over Falk in statewide polls.
Barrett led Falk 38 to 21 percent in the most recent Marquette Law School Poll released May 2. According to Burden, that is because voters believe Barrett has the best chance of beating Walker in the general recall.
Although Barrett leads in polls, Falk has raised more money than Barrett in campaign donations with about one third of her funds coming directly from large state unions. Barrett raised about $831,000 to Falk’s $977,000.
Walker, meanwhile, has raised $25 million since January 2011, a much larger time frame but one in which he has also spent nearly $21 million.
McCabe said the discrepancy in campaign funds between the Democrats can be attributed to Barrett’s relatively late start campaigning and Falk’s large influx of money from labor unions earlier this year. Union-backed organization Wisconsin for Falk, for instance, has already spent over $4 million on advertisements.
Although support from unions could help Falk in the primary, McCabe said her labor allegiance might hurt her because voters could tie her too closely to the unions’ cause.
“She’s going to benefit from millions of dollars of union spending on her behalf but … she is seen as the union candidate and that could very well work against her,” McCabe said.
Both Barrett and Falk agree that unity after the primary will be important.
If he were to win the primary, Barrett has said he would emphasize gathering support from unions in the form of both votes and financial backing and would suggest Democratic primary candidates consolidate their support bases after the primary is over. Once the election is over, Falk said the party will come together for the general election.
“On May 9th we are all united,” Falk said.
High voter turnout expected for primary
With heightened interest in this year’s election, officials are expecting high voter turnout with 30 to 35 percent of the voting age population expected to vote in the primary recall election Tuesday.
The Government Accountability Board said in a statement Saturday approximately 1.3 to 1.5 million people are expected to turnout for the election.
Kevin Kennedy, Director and General Counsel of the GAB, cited a strong public interest in the recall election as a reason for the expected increase in voter turnout.
However, on the Milwaukee political news program “Upfront with Mike Gousha”, Kennedy said that although the board is predicting as high as a 35 percent turnout, it is difficult to know how many people will actually vote because this election is unlike previous races.
Kennedy also said he expects a turnout of more than 50 percent for the general recall election June 5, higher than the 2010 gubernatorial election.
In the last 50 years, the highest voter turnout for a September partisan primary was 27.9 percent in 1964. In the last decade, the highest turnout was 22.5 percent in 2002.
—Sarah Olson
