In recent months rumors spread that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would seek the United Nation's recognition of Palestine as a member state. Those rumors peaked just as Abbas announced he would indeed submit his people's application to the U.N. Security Council, despite the very explicit threat of an American veto. Since the Palestinian application had little chance of passing the Security Council, one might question why the Palestinian leadership would submit the proposal in the first place.
For one, the timing of the proposal is extremely important, and several factors demonstrate that this was indeed an opportune moment for such an application. First, the Arab Spring appears to be a moderate success—Libya has a new government while Egyptians and Tunisians are preparing to go to the polls for the first time in decades and new ostensibly democratic governments have formed in the Ivory Coast and Southern Sudan. Western governments have fully embraced these democratic movements, yet the Palestinian people remain without a state. The moment may have seemed appropriate for the Palestinian leadership to raise this issue before the world community and say, ""put up or shut up.""
The timing also coincides with election cycles of several Western governments. Most important for the Palestinian cause is the upcoming elections in France. President Sarkozy was a staunch supporter of NATO intervention in Libya and has argued for Western intervention elsewhere, yet has remained quiet regarding Palestine. With a difficult election just around the corner for Sarkozy, he may be more concerned over the implications of potentially giving his support to Palestine than other Western leaders.
Perhaps most important to Abbas is his domestic political situation. After losing Gaza to the Islamic political party Hamas, Abbas has foundered in office and has little to show for his presidency. A staunch supporter of nonviolence, Abbas has watched peace negotiations stall for years, and so have the Palestinian people. Abbas has relied on the United States to provide leadership and force the disparate parties to the negotiation table, yet the domestic political situation in the U.S. has kept negotiators from making real progress. By bringing the issue before the world community, Abbas is effectively asking someone else to step up.
In applying for statehood with the U.N. Security Council, Abbas surely knew that he faced certain defeat. Yet he also knew that the vote would be taken up with the U.N. General Assembly; it is likely in the UNGA where Abbas wants to make the most noise. By pushing the issue to a vote, Abbas and the Palestinian leadership can effectively line up support to make clear where the international community stands on the issue. Governments will no longer be able to talk cheaply while avoiding any real support for the Palestinian people.
In the end, the Palestinian application for statehood is about opening bargaining space. By bringing the issue to the forefront of world attention and asking for statehood, the Palestinians have effectively proposed what the Israelis see as the ‘nuclear option.' By demanding such a high cost for settlement, yet remaining open to unofficial statehood in the short-term, the Palestinians position guarantees an improvement over the status quo. The Israelis, hoping to avoid full recognition of the Palestinian state, will probably end up sacrificing more than they would have hoped for as pressure continues to build in the international community.
The Palestinian move has been carefully crafted and appropriately timed. As the Arab Spring reaches its apex, and Western governments begin preparing for election cycles, Abbas has determined that the time is right for a political masterstroke. Abbas has little to lose and he knows it—by trumpeting the issue loudly at the U.N. and in the world press, Abbas gains by simply reminding the world of the Palestinian plight. Hopefully Abbas' proposal does not have unintended consequences, and the Palestinian people do not suffer from his political gamble.
Andrew Thompson is a senior majoring in history and political science. Please send all feedback to opinion@dailycardinal.com.
