After Michael Jordan left the NBA for a second time following his last championship in 1998, many feared the league might face an identity crisis without its iconic superstar. They were correct; the league has seen a notable decrease in popularity over the past decade. Jordan's brilliant career is far behind us, but the league could still boost its popularity by considering some changes in format.
Proof of the recent decline is demonstrated through TV ratings. The 1998 NBA Finals of the Bulls versus the Jazz yielded a Nielsen rating of 18.7—the highest ever for an NBA Finals. Since then, the Finals have reached the 12.0 Nielsen mark just once, in 2001 (the Lakers defeated the 76ers with a 12.1 rating). In 2007, Cavalier superstar LeBron James made his first NBA Finals appearance. This did not prevent the series from receiving just a 6.2 Nielsen rating, the lowest in Finals history. Even last season, when the Celtics and Lakers met to rekindle a historic rivalry from two decades earlier, the series only managed to attain a mediocre 9.3 Nielson mark.
What other factors besides Jordan's dismissal have caused the NBA to lose its ratings even on the game's biggest stage? Recent changes in format have sparked serious issues.
In 2003, the league extended its first-round playoff series from a best-of-five to a best-of-seven series. This change was probably instituted to increase revenue, as a longer series would increase ticket sales. But as in many cases with leagues today (specifically college football's playoff format), a change that is good for business is not necessarily good for the league as a whole.
The change probably reduced the chances of an upset over higher seeds, which is not necessarily a bad thing. It also dragged out the length of the NBA playoffs to an exaggerated level, pushing the start of the finals all the way back to early June. For a regular season that ends in mid-April, it seems unreasonable to make fans wait that long to crown an eventual champion.
The NBA desperately needs to accelerate its momentum, not only in the playoffs, but the regular season as well. It does not have the NFL's buildup going into each weekend or MLB's set series with intriguing pitching matchups. Shortening the season from its 82-game format would have too much of an effect on statistics, but cutting down the number of playoff teams from eight to six could serve as an alternative solution.
This season's standings make this option fairly practical. In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons and Bulls occupy the final two playoff spots. Both have sub-.500 winning percentages. This isn't to say that either of these teams isn't capable of an upset, nor that they shouldn't be given the opportunity to do so.
At the same time, eliminating these spots would eliminate a round from the playoffs and pile more pressure on succeeding in the regular season. The same goes for the Western Conference, where an already ultra-competitive race would get that much more intense.
There are also uncontrolled factors that will decide whether the NBA can revert back to its days of immense popularity. Team owners and general managers will participate in the oft-discussed 2010 NBA offseason, which will have huge implications for the future of the league. Some of the NBA's brightest stars will be up for free agency, most notably LeBron James.
At age 24, James has made the Cavaliers into a serious title contender, leading his team to a league-best 61 victories.
Whether the Cavs win the title or not, it's astonishing to see James accomplish all this at such a young age. He has already established himself not only as a once-in-a-generation talent, but also as a highly marketable superstar with a unique personality. We'll have to wait and see whether James remains in Cleveland, but a move to a big market at this point in his career could be exactly what the league needs to improve its ratings and popularity.
As a huge NBA fan, it has been disheartening to see people lose interest in a league that still holds a tremendous amount of talent and excitement. But some format changes and a few lucky breaks could bring us back to the days of Jordan, when it seemed as if everyone in the world wanted to tune in and witness greatness on the basketball court.
Do you think LeBron James has received enough credit for his accomplishments in the NBA? E-mail Matt with your thoughts at mfox2@wisc.edu.
