The game of baseball has always been one where numbers and statistics play an important role. One batter stands at the plate, one pitcher on the mound, and the action is so infrequent it can easily be charted and broken down.
However, for a long time, basketball has not followed that model.
Conventional basketball statistics measure what players do with the ball, but not their overall impact on a game. Furthermore, those numbers can be tainted, as players like Allen Iverson or Patrick Ewing sacrificed sound defense for gambling on steals and blocks or rebounders abandon getting back on defense in hopes of an offensive rebound.
This is not to say that all box score numbers tell us nothing, but they lack context to say many important things about the player.
But now, many fans are turning to a newer brand of statistics to gain a greater understanding about the quality of teams and players.
The most important new statistic is called pace, which breaks play down into individual possessions. This is important because many teams play at considerably different paces, and it has a profound effect on final numbers.
For example, Wake Forest averages over 81 points per game while the Badgers average around 65. But a closer look at the numbers reveals that the Daemon Deacons average 14 more possessions per game, which means 14 more chances to score, and that the Badgers really run a more efficient offense.
By the same token, defensive numbers are deflated by running a slower pace. Wisconsin, which often runs the shot clock to single digits, gives opponents fewer chances to score and naturally gives up fewer points per game.
It may surprise some fans to realize this season that Badger offense actually ranks higher than the defense among Big Ten teams.
We can see how teams compare over 100 possessions and get a better barometer of how they measure up to each other.
That can also be used to see what percent of a team's possessions end in turnovers, and undo any of the distorting effects of faster or slower teams.
This way of understanding basketball opens up a whole new way to see the impact an individual player has, because everything can be broken down into possessions.
Players can also be evaluated in this way by seeing their effect when on or off the court. The New York Times looked at this recently, pointing out that when Shane Battier was on the court, playing against former MVP Kobe Bryant, the Lakers performed worse than they did when Bryant was not on the court at all.
There are so many things that a basketball player does that can't be quantified. How does one assign value to a great baseline pick that frees a shooter, or playing great man-to-man defense?
Iverson averages many assists because the ball is always in his hands, but a big man who initiates a scoring play with a smart pass never gets due credit.
The way to view these players is similar to the way scientists see black holes. They can't actually see the black holes, but they see what is around them.
Similarly, players are measured by how the team around them performs when they are on or off the court. If a top scorer's presence actually makes his team perform worse, that says something about him.
There are other useful stats, including the relatively common-sense idea of rebounding percentage. It breaks down how good a team is at getting a rebound when either that team or the opponent takes a shot. The idea behind it is simple and elegant, and it really shows which team is better.
This kind of math has long been accepted by Badger head coach Bo Ryan, who regularly tracks points per possession. Maybe in the past this was the realm of stat geeks, but now advanced basketball numbers have become an essential tool for understanding the game far beyond a boxscore.
How important are statistics when determining a player's value to a team? Tell Ben what you think by e-mailing him at breiner@wisc.edu.
