By sifting through global agricultural data and economic indicators, UW-Madison scientists identified countries best positioned to enter the quickly growing biofuel marketplace.
The results of the study, published in October, ranked the usual suspects - the United States and European countries - as major biofuel contenders as well as a group of unlikely contributors - a handful of developing countries.
These results are unique because past studies chose to look at U.S. and Europe only,"" said Matt Johnston, a graduate student at UW-Madison's Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE). ""We took an agnostic look and included [all countries].""
As oil supplies continue to dwindle and environmental concerns escalate, biofuels offer a short-term solution, explained Tracey Holloway, a UW-Madison assistant professor of environmental studies. Instead of using oil buried deep within the Earth, which when burned, pumps carbon into the atmosphere, biofuels take advantage of recycling nature of plants.
""Plants are the lungs of the planet,"" Johnston said. He explained by the time plant matter is turned into biofuel, it has already spent months sucking carbon out of the atmosphere. As biofuels are burned and carbon released, the next season's crop perpetuates this carbon uptake-release cycle. While biodiesel (the alternative to petroleum diesel) is not 100 percent carbon neutral, Johnston said burning biodiesel releases only around 25 percent of the carbon dioxide released by diesel.
Additionally, Johnston said the production of biodiesel is relatively easy. To create it, scientists simply alter the consistency of vegetable oil.
""Essentially, biodiesel is vegetable oil made thinner,"" Johnston said. By peeling away vegetable oil's thick chemical backbone through a simple chemical reaction, scientists thin vegetable oil into a fuel capable of being run in existing engines.
Although the biodiesel refinery process is simple, a country's agricultural industry, economics and politics all influence a country's biodiesel potential.
Careful analysis of more than 200 countries led Johnston and Holloway to identify the United States, Argentina, Brazil and Germany in the top ten countries capable of maximizing biofuel production. Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia, Uruguay and Ghana represented developing nations capable of producing high volumes of biodiesel for a low cost.
According to Johnston, many of the developing countries ranking high in biodiesel potential currently pay high prices to import petroleum while exporting the very vegetable oils capable of being turned into biodiesel.
Based on the right conditions, developing countries may be able to turn vegetable oil into biodiesel, increase export potential and costs, and save by eliminating high-cost petroleum imports.
""Our findings show us the places in the world that might use biofuels as a developing option,"" Johnston said.
While biodiesel production may offer a chance at economic growth in developing countries, Holloway explained there is a risk that biodiesel production could lead to unknown ripple effects, such as threatening food markets, land use and water supplies.
By identifying countries that may enter the biofuel marketplace, Johnston said the study highlights regions that will need to be monitored to evaluate the future impacts of biodiesel production.
""Developed countries are creating the demand [for increased biodiesel production]. We are driving up prices,"" Johnston said. ""At the same time, we are telling developing countries who are responding to that demand, 'Don't cut down the forest.' We can't have it both ways.""
Recognizing the risks involved, Johnston said he is not an advocate of all countries identified becoming biodiesel producers.
""[These findings] are not meant to be taken as a policy recommendation'¦ not what you should do, but where development could take place,"" Johnston said.
""Every country responds differently to economic opportunities,"" Holloway said. ""Ultimately, [we will need to] design responsible biofuel policy, keeping in mind adverse environmental effects biofuel production can have.""
