If you're already thinking that Wisconsin has no chance to win in the Horseshoe Saturday, think again. But one thing is for sure: This is a hard game to handicap.
Both Ohio State and Wisconsin made statements this past weekend in an effort to prove that their weaknesses really aren't as bad as they seem. Two weeks ago UW was giving up 25 points per game. In the two games since, they have given up six points total. Ohio State, meanwhile, was averaging 34 points per game on offense, but was being criticized for a weak schedule.
Those critics had evidence too. OSU's offensive output included blowout victories over Youngstown State, Northwestern and Kent State. Congrats. Then there were the unimpressive victories over Akron (20-2) and Minnesota (30-7). Those scores might reflect easy wins, but the halftime score against Akron was 3-2. Against Minnesota, junior quarterback Todd Boeckman only had 209 passing yards against a team that has given up 332 passing yards per game this season. Fair or not, Ohio State's offense still had something to prove. They did that Saturday.
Coming into the game, Penn State was fourth in the country in scoring defense. The Buckeyes left Happy Valley after putting 37 points on the scoreboard. Thirty of those points came from the offense - an impressive showing against one of the conference's elite defenses. Weakness solved.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, was having a tumultuous season on the defensive side of the football. Solid performances against UNLV and Iowa were overshadowed by terrible performances against Michigan State, Illinois and Penn State, which put up 34, 31 and 37 points respectively. And it's hard to ignore that even The Citadel scored 31 points in Camp Randall.
The Badgers rebounded by holding Northern Illinois to three points, but the Huskies only have one win on the season. Fans and critics needed more proof. They got that Saturday. Indiana's offense came into Camp Randall ranked third in the conference in total offense. They went home after only managing three points. Weakness solved.
It's hard to tell which Wisconsin defense will show up in Columbus this weekend. It's hard to tell which Ohio State offense will show up too, although the Buckeyes offense has been more consistent than the UW defense.
So why does Wisconsin have a shot? It may come down to the Ohio State mistakes that everyone seems to be ignoring.
If the Badger defense keeps up the execution it showed against NIU and Indiana, this will most likely be a close, low-scoring affair. If that proves to be the case, there may be a small window of opportunity Wisconsin will need to take advantage of to win the game.
If you turned off Saturday night's blowout of Penn State, you probably missed A.J. Wallace's 97-yard kickoff return that inflated the Nittany Lion's side of the scoreboard. Earlier in the season, when the Buckeyes beat Northwestern 58-7, the Wildcats' only score came on a 99-yard kickoff return by Stephen Simmons. Ohio State is giving up an unimpressive 23 yards per kick return.
There's no question that OSU's defense is the best in the country. They have only given up five touchdowns on the entire year and have had five games where they did not give up a touchdown at all. So why don't the Buckeyes have any shutouts?
One reason is because of those two kickoff returns. Another is because of a safety they surrendered against Akron. And a third is because of two defensive touchdowns Michigan State scored against them two weeks ago. There have been plenty of mistakes that have led to meaningless points only because Ohio State has been winning by so much. But, if Wisconsin's defense can keep the game close, any similar mistakes could end OSU's national championship hopes.
Still, UW has to create those mistakes. Until last week, Wisconsin had not had an interception in Big Ten play. Even after forcing five turnovers against Indiana, the Badgers' turnover ratio on the season is negative three. And a special teams touchdown? It's possible, but freshman returner David Gilreath has not seen the end zone all season, despite being one block or juke away a number of times.
UW is getting better at making those big plays lately, however, and that is probably more important than the season statistics. If Wisconsin can win the turnover battle and maybe steal some points on a big return by Gilreath, the Badgers will have a great chance of beating Ohio State for the fourth straight time in Columbus.
That is, if the good Badger defense shows up.
If you agree with Hoge's assessment of this weekend's matchup, e-mail him at hoge@wisc.edu.
