The most important game in the Big Ten Tournament's first round as far as the Badgers are concerned is the No. 7 vs. No. 10 game, which features Michigan State and Northwestern. The Badgers play the winner Friday in Chicago at 1:30 p.m.
Michigan State (8-8 Big Ten, 21-10 overall), whom the Badgers know very well as of late, is the best defensive team in the Big Ten. The Spartans allow only 56.3 points per game, a full point better than Illinois. They are led by their junior point guard Drew Neitzel. Neitzel has been sick lately, which, head coach Tom Izzo said after MSU's loss against the Badgers, is limiting his bounce off screens.
Northwestern (2-14, 13-17) might be in severe trouble against the pesky Spartans. Though the Wildcats allow a Big Ten fourth-best 58.6 points per game, they are last in the Big Ten in scoring. NU's 56.4 points are nearly five points worse than Minnesota's mark, which ranks 10th.
The teams only matched up once this season, with MSU dominating in a 21-point victory. Neitzel and Maurice Gray, who played just 26 minutes, combined for 34 of the Spartans' 66 points. NU's Vince Scott led the Wildcats with an anemic 11 points.
Northwestern is without a key win this season, with their most notable victories coming against DePaul and Miami (FL). However, they battled Wisconsin to a 56-50 defeat in Evanston, Ill. and played a close game in Columbus, Ohio against Greg Oden and the No. 1 Buckeyes. Michigan State is stock full of impressive victories. Neitzel has led his club to wins over Texas, Brigham Young, Bradley, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Indiana and, most notably, the Badgers. They also were a Neitzel 3-pointer short of upsetting both OSU and UW.
As far as whom the Badgers would rather play, the answer is obvious. Wisconsin has defeated the Wildcats twice, whereas a Kammron Taylor miracle 3-pointer saved the Badgers from being swept by Michigan State. Furthermore, Neitzel has averaged 25 points against UW and Badger head coach Bo Ryan said he thinks Wisconsin guard Michael Flowers is sick of guarding him.
But before the Badgers prepare for MSU, they have to wait and watch Thursday to see whom they'll face. A loss for MSU, though, could possibly land them on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday.
Prediction: Northwestern's defense will hold Michigan State in check for most of the game, but their awful offense will struggle mightily.
MSU 58, Northwestern 45.
