Guess who is everyone's most overrated No. 2 seed? Surprise, surprise—the disrespect of Wisconsin continues.
This just in from Jeff Goodman at FoxSports.com: ""Cinderella? Georgia Tech—if the Yellow Jackets can get past UNLV, they will knock off Bo Ryan's Wisconsin team.""
Want more? This is one of Goodman's storylines in the Midwest bracket: ""Can the boys from the island, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, pull off the huge upset over No. 2 Wisconsin in the first round? It'll be tough since the Badgers are just a couple hours away from home.""
Even former Daily Cardinal Sports Editor and current ESPN.com writer Andy Katz thinks the Badgers could fall to Georgia Tech. Katz wrote on Monday: ""As a No. 10 seed, Georgia Tech might not be the favorite against seventh-seeded UNLV on Friday in Chicago, but it certainly could be a hot choice to get to the Sweet 16 with a struggling second-seeded Wisconsin potentially on deck in round 2.""
Of course all this negativity around Wisconsin's Final Four chances should not surprise us. The Badgers have been doubted all year long. But here are five reasons not to worry about an early Tourney exit:
5. Not playing Big Ten teams will help the recent scoring woes. Wisconsin was averaging 77.5 points per game during the non-conference season, but against Big Ten teams, this number dropped to 65.7. The defense was consistent, however. Against Big Ten teams UW only gave up 57.1 points per game, just a little lower than the 57.9 it gave up against teams out of the Big Ten. The difference here is the scoring margin—and the four Big Ten losses that came as a result of familiar players and coaches figuring out how to shut down Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor.
Taylor might be the biggest beneficiary of getting out of the Big Ten, as teams will be vying to shut down Tucker. Taylor's points per game have actually stayed pretty steady since the non-conference season ended, but his shooting percentage was way down in the Big Ten. When the conference season started, Taylor was shooting 49 percent from both the floor and from beyond the arc. In the 16 regular season Big Ten games, Taylor shot 36 percent from the floor and 35 percent from three. He's a senior—you think guys like Tom Izzo, Bruce Weber and Thad Matta haven't figured him out yet?
4. The Midwest bracket is relatively weak. This is the bracket of the ""overrated"" seeds. Florida was somehow given the No. 1 overall seed, No. 5 Butler is getting criticized for being seeded that high, Oregon only has a No. 3 seed because it made a late run to win the Pac-10 Tournament, and Wisconsin is supposedly the worst No. 2 seed.
Would Wisconsin rather go through Georgia Tech and Oregon or Nevada and Texas A&M?
3. Welcome to the Kohl Center South. Teams always play better at home, and at this point the United Center in Chicago is the second home for the Badgers. They played three games there last weekend and they will by far have the most fans there this weekend. The Big Ten is hosting the Chicago games and Wisconsin is the only Big Ten team of the eight who will play there Friday.
And what about proximity? Wisconsin has to travel 150 miles while its other possible opponents are coming from Nevada, Texas and Georgia.
2. Oregon is good, but UW won't have to play them. Bryce Taylor freaked out last Saturday and hit all 11 shots he took in the Pac-10 Championship game, including going 7-for-7 from 3-point range. Impressive, but he was 3-for-17 in the three games before that and the Ducks live and die by the three. When they make them, they can beat USC by 24, but when they miss them they can lose six of eight games like they did a month ago.
Remember Torrell Martin at Winthrop who set a Kohl Center record with seven of his own threes against the Badgers? Watch for the Eagles to top the Ducks in the second round, and we already know Wisconsin can beat Winthrop.
1. Wisconsin is too well coached to lose early. It is not a secret that if you go zone and have a shot blocker in the paint, you have a pretty good shot at beating Wisconsin. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has the seven-foot Chris Daniels, but not much else. UNLV has the league's top defender in senior center Joel Anthony, but the Rebels give up 66 points per game and if Wisconsin can get that many points, the Badgers will have a good shot a winning. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has three exciting freshmen, but Ryan's disciplined Badgers will be able to force the kids to turn the ball over.
Remember when UW dominated the non-conference season by making more free throws than its opponents attempted? I expect the Badgers to return to that form.
The bottom line is that Katz and Goodman have reason to doubt Wisconsin (UW won't even beat TAMU-CC if it plays like it did Sunday against Ohio State), but there are also plenty of reasons to believe the Badgers can still make the Final Four.
No one really knows what will happen though, so good luck with your picks in the Midwest bracket.
E-mail Adam and tell him he is being overly optimistic at hoge@dailycardinal.com.
