Situation A: The Huskies were seconds away from wrapping up a victory against Duke in a 2004 Final Four match-up. The score was 79-75 as the Blue Devils inbounded the ball to then-senior Chris Duhon. Duhon streaked across the court, untouched, and nailed a 38-foot 3-point heave at the buzzer. The shot was absolutely meaningless. The scoreboard read 79-78 and Connecticut was still going on to the national title game.
Situation B: It was the bottom of the 15th inning in the fifth game of the 1999 National League Championship Series. With the Mets and Braves tied at three and the bases loaded, Robin Ventura crushed a ball over the rightfield wall, winning the game for the Mets. But as he rounded first base, backup catcher Todd Pratt led a mob of Metropolitans as they captured Ventura and carried him off the field before he could get to second. The third baseman was credited with a single, not a grandslam, and thus only one run was forced in, making the final score 4-3, leaving play-by-play man Bob Costas utterly flustered.
What do these events have in common? Well, other than being semi-final postseason matchups, not much to fans of the respective teams. With or without Duhon's heave, UConn and Duke fans were heading back to their cars in the same mood. And single or grandslam, Atlanta and New York fans both would've hit the hay with a Met win and a Brave loss. So, these events meant nothing, right?
Wrong. You see, Duhon's three cost betters around the country millions of dollars (estimated between 30 and 100 million nationwide). The spread was 2.5, meaning Duhon's heave, though inconsequential to the results of the contest, cut the Husky lead from four to one. If the senior had just dribbled out the clock, or missed the long ball, as he had on his five other 3-point attempts of the game, people's wallets would still be intact.
The Ventura situation had to be even more frustrating for betters. The over-under was set at 7.5. With the score tied at three and the bases loaded, the best hope for bettors of the over would be either a trip to more extra-innings, where the Braves could score more runs in the top half of the inning, or a grand slam by Ventura, whose 18 career grand salamis are tied for fourth all-time with Willie McCovey. Ventura took care of the latter, launching a pitch into the Mets bullpen. And as bettors of the over celebrated with NBC posting a 7-3 score, their eyes must have gotten wide, as a parade of Mets stormed from the dugout to carry Ventura off the diamond. Even Ventura himself had waved them off.
So, my question becomes, why would you bet on these games when your accurate prediction of the results of a game is ruined by players' individual urges? Duke players were walking off the court as Duhon's three went up. The game was over. UConn had essentially covered the 2.5 spread. And even worse was the Mets and Braves. Those who bet the over did so correctly, until a team decided to celebrate prematurely.
Why bet on something that depends so much on human actions and human urges? That's like betting on whether a guy will buy a ham or turkey sandwich. You can't bet on someone's inner-thought process.
You bet on the Cowboys beating the Dolphins in 1993's Thanksgiving Day game? Meet Mr. Leon Lett. In 1979, a ref stopped a fight between Sugar Ray Leonard and Wilfredo Benitez at Caesar's Palace with 10 seconds left, even though Benitez was on his feet ready to go. Hope you didn't wager on the fight to go the distance.
We cheer for these competitors like Leonhard, Duhon or Ventura because of their bloodthirsty mentalities on the field. Do you think Kobe Bryant cares that the Lakers lost only by seven to the Suns because it covers some spread? If so, then we have a problem.
Here's the suggestion: Stick to fantasy sports and NCAA pools and root for your teams. That way you get hurt, but only when your teams lose: an appropriate consequence. If your fantasy player loses a game, then you lose a game too. It makes much more sense that way.
But betting on your own team every night won't get you any awards. And as recent developments show, it certainly won't get you in Cooperstown.
Sam can be reached for comment at sepepper@wisc.edu.
