If North Korea was an island with no surrounding populated areas, would anyone negotiate with them? North Korea's strongest bargaining chip is not a nuclear bomb—it is their relationship with South Korea and China, and that relationship has become exhausted.
South Korea's Sunshine Policy for a peaceful relationship between the North and South seemed like a good idea, but North Korea rejected that plan by passively testing missiles last summer.
China, their only meaningful ally, recently denounced the belligerent and semi-failed nuclear test, signaling what may be the end of that friendship.
Now that the neighbors have tried and failed, there is no reason the United States should make an attempt to quell the situation. South Korea, China and Japan have a lot more directly at stake than the United States and they should be the ones who have to deal with the North Korean regime.
The United States has approached diplomacy with North Korea many times and in many ways. One-on-one talks failed. Four-party talks failed. Everything has failed. The Clinton administration got them to arrest their nuclear program, but that was an ephemeral result. There is no diplomatic solution to this conflict that involves the United States and North Korea.
The recent U.N. sanctions against North Korea will only make the hungry hungrier, and the poor poorer. The sun has set, and unfortunately the fate of several million people lies in the hands of Kim Jong Il, a ruthless dictator.
A few weeks ago, U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill stated that North Korea can either have a nuclear bomb or a future, but not both. While developing a nuclear program undoubtedly means the status quo of destitution amongst the people will continue, it may also mean that the future of North Korea is even bleaker.
The South Koreans, Chinese and Japanese need to take one last shot at diplomacy. If those talks fail—as the past suggests they will—the next step is waiting: waiting for North Korea to make the next move, which may result in a modern-day Tonkin Gulf.
Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post suggested in a recent op/ed that China has the most influence on North Korea and should, by default, take charge in negotiations. China is strongly connected to North Korea, but what happens when they disobey China as well? China draining North Korea's lifeblood of supplies is risky—it leaves them with nothing but weapons.
One approach that has not been considered is doing nothing. Once North Korea builds up their nuclear program and ballistic missile program, they still have to use them to make a statement. The unfortunate reality is that any militaristic action is suicide.
Some would say that waiting for North Korea to be able to reach California is an awful approach, but would they really gamble with sending a missile toward the United States? Or any other country for that matter?
This is not the Cold War; there would be no mutually assured destruction. An attack on the United States is doubtful as it would most likely leave North Korea as a crater.
The United States is too bold to have a laissez-faire attitude toward rogue nations with nuclear weapons. That leaves the situation in a complicated place.
Diplomacy does not and will not work. Going to war seems like an unnecessarily gruesome outcome—plus the United States cannot bite off more than it can chew because Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan are still on the agenda.
What remains is letting the bordering countries deal with it their way, and hopefully Kim Jong Il changes his course, thus ending this mini-Cold War.
