Iraq is on the brink of civil war. Sectarian violence erupted following the bombing of a central religious symbol, a Shiite shrine, Askariya, in Samarra last month and has continued since. What is especially surprising is the Shiite response and its potential impact on the formation of a new Iraqi government.
Since the United States arrived in 2003, the insurgency has been Sunni dominated. There have been few Shiite responses because their central religious authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has urged them not to. Unfortunately, moderate voices like those of Ayatollah Sistani are now being drowned out by those calling for a more militant response,\ said political science professor Tamir Moustafa. One of the groups which has refused to remain silent is the Mahdi Army.
The Mahdi Army is loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr, the leader of Iraq's most powerful Shiite party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and has so far led the Shiite retaliatory force.
The Mahdi Army is dangerous and does not represent the popular view of most Shiites, according to Moustafa. ""Al-Sadr represents a radical minority,"" he said. Al-Sadr is a fervently anti-American cleric whose army seems to blame all Sunnis for the attack in Samarra. The truth is, there are many Sunnis who are active participants in forming a democracy in Iraq.
The view that all Sunnis are responsible for the horror the insurgency brings is similar to the view many held following Sept. 11, 2001; every Muslim was under public scrutiny. However, even though the majority of Shiites have condemned the Mahdi reprisals and do not hold this view, Shiites seem to be gaining some ground. According to Moustafa, ""al-Sadr has a far stronger hand"" than when U.S. forces arrived in 2003 and ""he can only gain from the current turmoil.""
The surge in sectarian violence poses a significant threat to the forming government because radical forces are continually gaining influence.
Due to the violence, Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari is being opposed by a coalition of Sunni, Kurdish and secular forces. An ally to al-Sadr, al-Jaafari has done nothing so far to ease the tension between Shiites and Sunnis and is rightfully opposed. In August 2005, Sunnis were largely shut out of the process of forming the Iraqi constitution, and this resistance continues today. Shiite leaders, including al-Jaafari, are responsible for this stonewalling.
If al-Jaafari continues as prime minister and al-Sadr's Mahdi Army gains more traction, Iraq really will be on the brink of civil war and the formation of a new Iraqi government will be incredibly difficult. ""I don't think anyone can say for certain where things will go in the next weeks, but it does not look good,"" said Moustafa.
The opposition to al-Jaafari by a coalition of Sunnis and Kurds is a step in the right direction. New Shiite leadership and Sunni participation are both vital aspects of a new Iraqi government. The attacks in Samarra and the subsequent reprisals by the Mahdi army are reprehensible and irresponsible, but as soon as leadership represents its citizens, there will be hope that an Iraqi government can be formed and a civil war averted.
Erik Opsal is a sophomore majoring in political science.
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