The United States has set June 30 as the date to transfer sovereignty in Iraq to the Iraqi people. That means over the next four months the United States must figure out a way to bridge the disagreements between the several competing ethnic groups, as well as establish the rule of law and devise the fairest way to split the country's vast amount of oil revenue among the people.
The goal is to have a functioning democracy in a nation that had been under the rule of one authoritarian leader for 40 years. Major steps have already been taken, including the drafting of a preliminary constitution early Monday that would guarantee, among other things, basic fundamental rights such as free speech.
Democracy, however, is a project. Iraq is sure to hit some bumps in the road, just as most nations do when making democratic transitions. Judging by how the Bush administration has treated recent crises in new democracies, the United States may not be prepared to help the Iraqis handle those bumps.
Saturday, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the democratically-elected president of Haiti, stepped down under immense pressure from his own subjects, as well as the United States and France. Aristide was elected to his second term (non-consecutively) in 2001, promising massive economic and social reform in the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation.
The longer he was in office, however, the less Aristide fulfilled his promises and the more he looked like an authoritarian leader looking to hold on to power no matter the cost. During the past few weeks rebel groups had been working to force his ouster, using a guerilla-style military campaign to eventually reach the capital of Port-au-Prince. Soon after, Aristide was on a plane to exile in Africa.
While Aristide was certainly not an effective president and probably should have been forced out of office, the United States took a terrible approach in assuring his exit. Despite pressure from France, the first country to call for Aristide's leaving office, and even from many within the State Department itself, President George Bush did not announce he would send troops to Haiti until Sunday-weeks after the start of the crisis.
By delaying the dispatch of the Armed Forces, the president effectively allowed a violent rebel group to gain a strong foothold on power in Haiti. Many rebel leaders had been part of previous authoritarian regimes. While removing Aristide was the right decision, the United States allowed the Haitian people to get rid of him in the wrong way, and in doing so opened the door for more strife in the coming months.
In a remarkably similar incident last fall, Charles Taylor was removed as president of Liberia. Taylor, like Aristide, was elected president after leading the country's transition from authoritarianism to democracy. Like Aristide, he was corrupted by power, and many Liberian people wanted his ouster.
The United States-despite the fact that many Liberians wanted an active American role in transferring power from Taylor-refused to send troops, instead keeping a small number of Marines in international waters just off the coast. Rebel Liberian forces-many of whose leaders, as in Haiti, had been officials in prior authoritarian regimes-marched to the capital, Monrovia, leaving a trail of bloodshed behind them. They forced Taylor out of office, and a small contingent of Nigerian troops were brought in to keep the peace.
As in Haiti, a terrible leader was rightfully removed in Liberia. As in Haiti, the removal of that leader was achieved through massive violence that the United States could largely have prevented. And as in Haiti, the situation surrounding the removal of that leader could lead to democratic instability for years to come.
There is now potential for a similar crisis in Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez faces increasingly fierce popular opposition. Chavez has promised that he will step down peacefully if need be. Bush, however, has publicly advocated his removal and even taken steps like giving U.S. aid to groups that want to push Chavez out. Chavez is predictably upset, saying if Bush continues to push for his ouster Venezuela - one of the four largest sources of oil for the United States-will not allow the United States to buy its oil.
The current administration wants to promote democracy. Democracy, however, does not create itself. Iraq-a country with a much sharper ethnic divide than Haiti, Liberia or Venezuela-is sure to meet its fair share of problems even if it has the most well-intentioned of leaders. Judging by how he has treated problems in other new democracies, Bush is not prepared for a crisis, nor will his administration be able to effectively intervene should one occur.
