Well, the votes are in. Gov. Gray Davis, D-Calif., was recalled from his office and replaced by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. This means a lot. First, California reporters will be living in hell, looking back on how easy it was to type \Davis"" in news articles discussing the governor. Second, this recall, along with the recall of Gov. Lynn Joseph Frazier, R-N.D., in 1921, makes gubernatorial recalls officially more frequent than a Cubs World Series win.
History needs to be considered when analyzing what just happened. First of all, the Cubs are an awful baseball team. Beyond that, Davis and Frazier were both victims of the same thing: progressive reforms having unintended consequences that came around to bite them. In 1920, when Frazier was re-elected, he pushed for a reform giving people the power of recall. He fought for state involvement in the economy to provide a safety net against farm foreclosures and other calamities befalling the working class. The very next year, when the economy tanked and people discovered that the safety net didn't provide the quick fixes they'd hoped for, resentment against Frazier built up and resulted in his ousting.
Davis, for his part, suffered because of his state's own progressive reforms of the past. Hiram Johnson, California's progressive governor and senator in the early 1900s, established the powers of recall, initiative and referendum. Since 1978, when Proposition 13 passed to limit property taxes, there have been a multitude of voter initiatives dealing with taxes, spending, social policy and every other issue under the sun. Schwarzenegger pushed an initiative last year to mandate that half a billion dollars be spent annually on after-school programs, for instance. As the people directly took over policy-making, they passed a lot of laws that made no sense. After all these initiatives, California's constitution mandates low taxes and high spending.
Gray Davis' real shortcoming was not a particular policy course, but a failure of leadership to keep all these competing urges under wraps. Rather than make the tough decisions early on, he allowed spending to go up, some taxes to go down, energy deregulation to take effect and other policies that together would add up to a mess. As a result, his approval rating early in his tenure was sky-high. Everybody had something to like about him. But when all the little policies added up to a big mess, there was nothing that could be done to save him, as everybody then had a reason to hate him.
So what happens now? Schwarzenegger will face a budget mess, a legislature with large Democratic majorities that hate him and a host of other difficulties. The legislature needs to reach two-thirds majorities in each house to pass a budget, a voter initiative that had been intended to force fiscal sobriety but only led to destructive deal-making that put the state in a fiscal mess. Even worse, just as Proposition 13 showed how easy initiatives were, leading to scores of them over the years, everyone just found out how easy recalls are. Schwarzenegger could, if things go badly and he takes the blame, be the third governor to be recalled. All it will take is some Democrat with a few million to throw around.
The recall also points to a larger trend across the country. As our country continues to go downhill, there is an extraordinary grassroots rage against established political figures. Madison elected Dave Cieslewicz mayor over old hand Paul Soglin. Louisiana voters have sent 32-year-old first-time candidate Bobby Jindal to their gubernatorial runoff. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been elected over Davis, a major figure in California for the last 25 years. On the national level, the two frontrunners for the Democratic presidential nomination are Howard Dean and Wesley Clark, who were previously total unknowns. The people are finding out that there aren't easy answers, and are simply angry with those who have peddled them.
Schwarzenegger is celebrating right now, but huge challenges are ahead. Can he solve the budget problems? Will he alienate his Republican base? Will the system remain in its broken state? Will the angry populace that elected him turn on him at the first disappointment? It might be springtime for Arnold right now, but winter is on the way.
opinion@dailycardinal.com.
