There comes a time in the college basketball season when teams realize how vital the upcoming games in the schedule are for their mere survival. There comes a point when one loss will push a team off \the bubble,"" out of the NCAA Tournament and into the NIT. And there comes a time, especially in a conference as competitive as the Big Ten, when several teams battle for those precious remaining spots in the NCAA Tournament.
It's just that someone forgot to tell some of the traditional Big Ten tourney-dwellers that this is not supposed to happen until early March.
Instead, programs that have advanced deep into the NCAA Tournament in years past, and others favored to be atop the Big Ten, are struggling for sheer survival.
With the unexplainable start to the Big Ten season, traditional powerhouse Michigan State, along with supposed contenders Ohio State and Minnesota, find their season dwindling into thin air. All three have losing records in Big Ten play, with the Spartans and the Buckeyes nearing the 10-loss plateau before the calendar shifts to February.
This, along with the fact that the conference has only two ranked teams at week's end, and the possibility of the Big Ten receiving the fewest number of invitations to the NCAA Tournament in over 10 years has become a reality.
Sure, Michigan State knocked off Indiana in dramatic fashion Tuesday, but one impressive victory cannot erase eight losses this early in the year. Indeed at 11-8 (3-4 Big Ten) Tuesday's 61-54 win at home was as much needed as any game the Spartans have played this year. On top of that is their upcoming schedule, which certainly does not hand Michigan State Head Coach Tom Izzo or his troops any favors.
Their next five games include a home game against Illinois, who still has not come close to playing their best basketball this season; a rematch with Indiana in Bloomington, where the Hoosier faithful will be anxious for payback; a trip to Wisconsin where the Badgers are 23-2 at home under Head Coach Bo Ryan; and Northwestern, the only ""lightweight"" during this stretch, who will no doubt catch a team or two by surprise before this Big Ten season concludes.
Sure Ohio State has been struck by detrimental injuries that have decimated a team that was picked to be in the middle, if not upper half, of the Big Ten. Yes, the Buckeyes' upcoming schedule is more favorable than Michigan State's, but the fact remains that this team is three games under .500 in conference and .500 overall!
Sure Minnesota has the luxury of facing (supposed) Big Ten powers Illinois and Indiana once each this season. But where then is this team supposed to pick up quality wins for the NCAA Tournament Committee to deem them a worthy member of the elite 65-team field come March.
Because trust me, wins against Oral Roberts, Fair Dickinson, Bethune-Cookman (who even knew this school existed ... I guess ""culinary schools"" are infiltrating the college basketball scene) and Sacred Heart are not impressive--in fact, not even worth noting if you ask me.
Give them credit though, at least they beat Arkansas ... oh wait, that was Arkansas-Little Rock. Well then at least they beat North Carolina ... oh wait, that was UNC-Asheville.
No matter what way you look at it, these three teams will be fighting for their lives night in and night out until March. And if they don't, their graves will be dug way before their time. Indeed, they may continue to slide farther and farther out of the picture, as one slip-up may spell disaster, and the end to their regular season.
Yes there is still the Big Ten Tournament, when one of these teams could ride a couple of hot players and pull out a Big Ten title and go dancin' in March.
I mean, no one is really going to want to deal with the Golden Gophers if Rick Rickert is healthy, producing and leading Minnesota the way everyone had anticipated at the start of the season. No one is going to want to battle Michigan State if Tom Izzo gets his team playing like teams in Michigan State's recent past. And certainly no one is going to want to face a healthy Ohio State team, who has one of the best guards in the conference in senior Brent Darby, who can single-handedly carry his team to victory.
With the season waiting in the balance for these three pre-season contenders, it is just a matter of time before the label of contender is permanently changed to pretender. That is, of course, if they have not already been given that title.
However, the fall from grace of these teams has given little hope of the Big Ten receiving its usual six or seven NCAA Tournament berths. Instead, it looks that as little as four or five teams may be all the Big Ten gets into the NCAA Tournament. The surprising success of Michigan (6-0 Big Ten, 13-6 overall) and Purdue (4-1, 12-4) have been great stories within the conference, but on a national scale, the results have been devastating.
Once again, it looks as though the Big Ten will be labeled as one of the weakest power conferences in college basketball. The way things are going there is absolutely no argument to put the Big Ten on the same page as the ACC, Big XII or SEC.
At least not from me.
