Despite last week's modest snow covering, any Midwesterner knows this is not what Wisconsin winters are supposed to be like. Where are the midwinter blizzards, the great masses of snow drifts, the endless white tapestry of a proper northwoods winter?
Instead, for the past decade, wintertime in Wisconsin has consisted more of green grass, budding plants and trees, occasional thin blankets of quickly melting snow and those hasty squadrons of confused waterfowl crisscrossing our four lakes, some going north, some south, all seemingly wondering what to make of this weaher.
The remarkable part of these recent weather changes is that they are happening before our very eyes, not over centuries or millennia. According to a growing weight of scientific evidence, these are the beginnings of a very real climate change'the early symptoms of global warming. These changes are causing unforseen problems both environmentally and economically, as those who depend on the weather's stability must learn to adapt in a rapidly changing situation.
Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted a 2.5 to 10.4 degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperature by the year 2100. In December, the United Nations Weather Agency announced it expected 2001 to be the second-warmest year since recording began 140 years ago, and that temperatures are rising three times faster than in the early 1990s.
World Meteorological Organization deputy secretary-general Michel Jarraud said, \Temperatures are getting hotter, and they are getting hotter faster now than any time in the past.""
David Houghton, UW-Madison professor emeritus of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, agrees and said that history is being made.
""We are 95 percent sure that there is climate change occurring, through correlated measurements,"" he said. ""Natural changes are having a bigger range than ever before, and this is all occurring at a very rapid time-change compared to normal climate changes.""
Houghton's data on Madison temperatures, collected for the past several decades at the university, reveals a definite warming trend during the winter months of the past decade. Average temperatures compared between 1961-1970 and 1971-2000 showed an increase of 1.5 degrees in January, 2.0 degrees in February and 2.5 degrees in March.
Although there will certainly be years and months of cold, snowy winters in our future, Houghton said the overall trend is undeniable: Warmer winters and unfamiliar weather patterns are in store for the future.
""You can't predict weather year-to-year, but this is definitely part of a larger pattern,"" Houghton said. ""A lot of the recent changes in weather patterns here in Madison have to do with the jet stream running further to the north than normal, which is keeping that cold Canadian air away and causing some changes.""
These changes didn't go unnoticed by the people of Buffalo, N.Y. Last December, their city was at the business end of over seven feet of lake-effect snow, courtesy of a completely ice-free Lake Erie. The shallowest of the Great Lakes and usually well iced-over by Christmas, Erie's open water was siphoned up by a large weather system and unleashed on land with a fury in a blizzard of historic proportions.
The Great Lakes are at their lowest level in 35 years and dropping due to the warm weather. Any water level change, small as it may seem, has a huge effect on local economies. According to Helen Brohl, Executive Director of U.S. Great Lakes Shipping, every inch reduction in Lake Michigan forces cargo ships to lighten their loads by 90 to 115 metric tons, and closes some shallow lake ports to international, deep-draft freighters, causing considerable economic loss for local businesses and consumers alike.
Closer to Madison, some local business and services that rely on traditional winters for their survival have taken a hit in recent years due to the warmth, and face the reality that future winters may bring similar tidings. Some will be able to adapt; some may be forced out of business.
Don McKay, general manager of the Tyrol Basin ski complex in Mount Horeb, Wis., said the recent warming trends have been a minor nuisance to business, causing opening day to be pushed back from mid-November to Dec. 9. Like other Midwestern ski hills, McKay said they have learned through experience to adapt to the economic uncertainty of cold, snowy weather by taking nature into their own hands.
""I think what people don't realize is that we don't really rely on natural snow'we figure we're going to make it all, no matter what,"" McKay said. ""We've actually made less snow so far this year than we did last year. What's been strange is that we're average but we're dealing with extremes; either an extreme amount of snow or a lack of snow, or warm weather or cold weather.""
Pat True, a 38-year-old small business owner and father of two small children, depends on snowy winters for his living. He is the owner and sole employee of True Trim, a lawn-care and snow-removal service based in Stoughton, Wis. True says that while the past four or five winters have been light, despite the recent snowfall, this winter is making him rethink the winter part of his operations.
""I've got about two grand in new equipment that's just sitting because I've only been out once the whole year,"" True said. ""I've made 60 bucks so far through January where I normally am up to $1200 by now, and anywhere between $2500 and $3500 a season.""
""It's just like farming, it all depends on the weather. It just doesn't seem like it's going to get much better,"" True said.
True said that retailers of snow equipment are also stuck in a bind because of the weather, which is causing further complications for his business.
""I want to buy a new trailer,"" True said. ""But with things the way they are, I just can't. All equipment sales are off, anyway, because the dealers aren't selling anything. They've already got motorcycles on the floor.""
So yes, as much as locals might miss weeks of sub-zero temperatures and six-foot snowdrifts, we must get used to the fact that the typical Wisconsin winter is fast becoming an endangered species.
