A new Marquette Law School Poll shows a tightened race for the two major Wisconsin elections.
Of likely voters polled between Oct. 24 and Nov. 1, Marquette finds the gubernatorial race between incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and newcomer Republican Tim Michels to be a dead heat — each with 48% support. Independent Joan Beglinger and undecided voters capture the remaining individuals polled.
In the U.S. race between incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Johnson has a two point lead among likely voters — 50% of support compared to Barnes’ 48%. Although still a competitive election, recent polling has indicated a shift towards Johnson, with FiveThirtyEight forecasts giving the incumbent senator a high chance of winning on election day.
The poll shows party loyalty is strong this midterm election, with 95% of polled Democrats supporting Evers, compared to 97% of Republicans behind Michels. Independents are slightly leaning towards Evers — 47% percent of independents support Evers compared to a very similar 46% backing Michels.
Similar to the Senate poll, 98% of Democrats back Barnes, and 97% of Republicans support Johnson. 46% of independents plan to vote Barnes while 53% prefer Johnson.
In a normal midterm year in the modern era, the President’s party is expected to lose an average of 26 House seats, and the President’s party has only gained/defended their Senate seats in six of the past 19 midterms, per FiveThirtyEight.
The Republican favorable Senate and House map, combined with the usual midterm advantage, makes it a hard year for Democrats. Voters see the economy as their top issue this election, and faced with high global inflation, voters pick Republicans in public confidence polling of which party can restore the economy.
Even so, Democrats are primed to somewhat defy the trends in a historic voter turnout year — even if the House and Senate go for Republicans.
Voter guides can be found online, and early voting is currently open. Election Day is on Tuesday, Nov. 8.
Jasper Bernstein is the Associate News Editor for The Daily Cardinal. Follow him on Twitter at @jasperberns.