President Barack Obama and U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., appear to have the advantage in their respective races in Wisconsin with the election less than a week away, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
According to the latest Marquette University Law School poll, Obama leads former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent in the presidential contest in the state while Baldwin holds a four-point edge over former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, 47 percent to 43 percent, in the U.S. Senate race.
The poll, which was conducted from October 25-28, used a sample of 1,243 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
The results are an improvement for the Democratic candidates compared to the last Marquette poll from mid-October, when Obama and Thompson each led Romney and Baldwin by one percentage point respectively.
Around 10 percent of the poll’s respondents said they have already cast their ballots for the Nov. 6 election. Early voters split 56 percent to 36 percent in Obama’s favor and 52 percent to 36 percent in Baldwin’s favor.
As was the case in previous Marquette polls, the preference of independent voters pointed to which candidates came out on top. Obama holds a five-point advantage over Romney with independents while Baldwin is beating Thompson by six points among swing voters.
More respondents held negative views of both Baldwin and Thompson than held positive ones. The poll shows a 38/45 favorability rating for Baldwin while Thompson’s stands at 38/51. As for the presidential race, Obama has a net positive favorability rating at 53/44 while Romney is at 45/50 favorability.
David Canon, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor, said Obama has reached a critical threshold by surpassing the 50 percent mark in the state, but added the Senate race could still go either way and may turn on the results of the presidential election.
“A decisive Obama win in Wisconsin would clearly be good news for Baldwin because it would mean a lot more marginal Democratic voters who may not have turned out to vote are actually turning out,” Canon said.
