U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., has a nine-point lead over former Gov. Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday.
The survey showed 50 percent of likely voters in the state plan to cast their ballot for Baldwin in November compared to 41 percent for Thompson. The results are a complete reversal of the previous Marquette poll conducted in mid-August, when Thompson led Baldwin 50 percent to 41 percent.
The most significant improvement for Baldwin seemed to come among swing voters, as 50 percent of independents polled said they preferred Baldwin while 38 percent favored Thompson.
Baldwin’s campaign spokesperson John Kraus said Baldwin’s recent gains in the polls prove momentum is on the congresswoman’s side.
“Tammy Baldwin has a strong record of fighting for Wisconsin middle class families and small businesses,” Kraus said in a statement. “She isn’t afraid to take on the big-moneyed special interests that have too much power and influence in Washington.”
However, Thompson’s campaign spokesperson Lisa Boothe said the Marquette poll does not accurately reflect voters’ opinions because it over-sampled Democrats. Thirty-four percent of voters questioned for the poll were self-identified Democrats while 26 percent were Republicans.
“We have no doubt that Wisconsin families will see through the lies and demagoguery that Tammy Baldwin and her liberal cronies are using to divert voters' attention away from her failed record,” Boothe said in an e-mail.
Director of the Marquette poll Charles Franklin pointed out in his analysis more Democrats were surveyed than usual and therefore included adjusted results to the average sample, suggesting Baldwin actually holds a smaller 48 to 43 percent lead over Thompson.
University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor David Canon said even though the poll likely over-sampled Democrats, Baldwin’s message painting Thompson as a Washington insider seems to be resonating with voters, helping to give her a slight advantage in the race.
“There’s clearly been a shift towards Baldwin, there’s no doubt,” Canon said. “All the polls are pointing in the same direction.”
As for the presidential election, 54 percent of poll respondents backed President Barack Obama while 40 percent supported Romney after Obama led by only three percentage points in the Marquette poll one month ago. Adjusted for the partisan sample, Obama led Romney 51 percent to 43 percent.
The poll was conducted from September 13-16 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
