Junior defensive end J.J. Watt announced via Twitter Sunday that he would be making his decision sometime this week on whether to play his senior year at Wisconsin or jump ship early for the NFL Draft. Not surprisingly, experts and amateurs alike have Watt going in the first round of the draft, likely as a low- 20s pick.
What is surprising though is the sense of absolute certainty many writers (local and national) have regarding Watt's departure for the professional level. I am not about to make a prediction either way, but I will say this: Watt's decision to stay or go is far from easy to predict.
Watt had an exceptional 2010 season, recording 62 tackles (21 of them for a loss) while being awarded the Lott Impact Trophy. I agree that, with these numbers, Watt would go in the first round of the draft. I also agree that the timing is just right for Watt – it would be hard to ask for a better year or a much better draft slot in 2012.
Here's the thing though: J.J. Watt loves his team.
Following the Badgers' loss against TCU in the Rose Bowl, Watt described his career at Wisconsin an experience that was better than he ever could have expected. This is a player who gave up a scholarship at Central Michigan, knowing full well the financial burden this would put on his parents, to follow his dream to play at Wisconsin.
The passion Watt had for his school was clear every Saturday this season. Somewhere between the all-out effort on the field, and his favorite show of spirit, the ""W"" hand gesture, it wasn't hard to buy in to Watt's genuine Badger dedication and pride.
This is a player who loves his teammates too, and their reciprocal love was no more evident than during the team's Thursday appearance at a Santa Monica, Calif., rally. Any team in the country would want a player with Watt's abilities, but when the former tight end's teammates joined in with the crowd chanting ""one more year,"" you couldn't help but understand that, for them, keeping Watt around for another season goes far beyond the football field.
And while Watt's football brethren certainly must be a heavy factor weighing in his decision, it's his biological brother who might just sway him to stay. Linebacker/ running back Derek Watt recently changed his commitment to play at Northwestern to instead don the cardinal and white.
Derek's playing time would likely be minimal at best in his freshman year. But for J.J., the prospect of being teammates with his younger brother at the collegiate level – the chance to be there as a second Watt begins his Wisconsin career – might be enough to convince him to extend his stay as a Badger.
It also seems hard to believe Watt could be satisfied with his career at Wisconsin leaving after the Badgers' tough Rose Bowl loss. Following the game, Watt described his emotions as ""one of the worst feelings I have ever had in my life.""
For a player with so much love and passion for Wisconsin football and his teammates, there can be little doubt Watt has the desire to play another season as a Badger and possibly lead the team to a second- straight Rose Bowl appearance. Whether this heartfelt desire can trump the temptation of the NFL remains to be seen.
Never doubt though that this was not the way Watt imagined ending his career at Wisconsin.
Outside football, Watt certainly has strong academic ties to the university, as well as a charitable organization in the community, the Justin J. Watt Foundation.
Watt, a high honor roll student and National Honor Society member in high school, has demonstrated a sincere commitment as a student at UW-Madison. A life sciences communication major, Watt has twice been named Academic All-Big Ten (2009 and 2010), and might not be willing to sacrifice the opportunity for a college degree.
Football is a business, and the NFL makes a lot of sense right now for Watt. But on unique occasions, passion can take precedent over logic.
Watt, certainly a great player and teammate, stands in a tough position. Ultimately, only he knows what decision will be made this week, but don't be too quick to assume his days as a Badger are over.
