Two weeks ago, with one conference loss already in hand, Ohio State and Iowa looming on the schedule and nary a complete performance to speak of, any bowl discussion among Badger fans likely started closer to Insight than BCS.
Nothing like two season-defining wins to spice things up a little.
However, with Bowl Championship Series aspiration comes the inherent volatility—and confusion—of computer generated rankings. It also includes a painful reminder of that 11-1 UW team that got shut out of the BCS in 2006 (head coach Bret Bielema's first season) despite being ranked No. 7 because no conference can have more than two teams represented in any given year.
The college football landscape—and therefore any idea on how the rankings will eventually shake out— is as muddled as ever this season. Any speculation as to what may or may not happen between now and the end of December is likely fruitless, but, after watching Wisconsin's last two games and looking at the remaining games in the Big Ten, I'll take a shot anyways. Here are three (relatively) likely scenarios in the Big Ten, and the ramifications each would have for UW's chances at a Big Ten title and/or a BCS berth.
Columnist's Note: You'll notice that each of the following situations involve Wisconsin winning its remaining four games. I'm not assuming that this will happen, but if it doesn't, this whole exercise is worth about as much as Brett Favre's left ankle.
Michigan State, Ohio State and UW all finish 7-1 in the Big Ten.
This might be the worst possible outcome for the Badgers. Because Ohio State and Michigan State do not play this year and all three teams would finish with the same overall record, the conference champion—and therefore the Rose Bowl representative—is decided by final BCS ranking. Currently, Ohio State sits at No. 10, directly behind Wisconsin.
Because Ohio State has a more difficult finishing stretch than UW, it isn't too much of a stretch to imagine the Buckeyes jumping over the Badgers. If that happens, then UW's Rose Bowl hopes are out the window and its BCS hopes depend on whether MSU drops below Wisconsin with one loss. Essentially, it becomes a toss-up.
Michigan State wins the conference title outright.
Assuming Ohio State wins its last four games (not necessarily a given, as they travel to Iowa on Nov. 26), the Badgers and Buckeyes could each find themselves eligible for a BCS berth. However, since a maximum of two teams from each conference are allowed into the BCS, it would be up to bowl representatives to choose between UW and OSU.
Now, this may seem like a no-brainer considering the Oct. 16 beat down at Camp Randall Stadium, but could be complicated if Ohio State finishes with a higher BCS ranking and/or the Buckeyes are seen as a more desirable team by the folks who make such decisions. Not that the BCS is often accused of logical thinking, but it seems that a head-to-head win should factor heavily into this decision.
UW wins the Big Ten outright
This requires Michigan State to lose twice, and after Northwestern blew a three-score lead against Sparty last Saturday, this appears to be the least likely situation. If Iowa regroups and beats Michigan State this Saturday, MSU will have to finish the season by going on the road and beating Penn State to stay on top. Penn State currently ranks 99th in the country in scoring, but not many teams waltz out of Happy Valley with an easy win. Of course, if MSU loses twice, Wisconsin would win the Big Ten outright and likely play in Pasadena, Calif. on New Years' Day.
The best bets for Wisconsin seem to be for the Spartans to either lose twice or not lose at all. Really, the most vigorous strategic cheering in Wisconsin should be for Ohio State to lose (not that this is a novel concept). In a way, Badger fans will either have to cheer for a Big Ten title (two losses from MSU) or for a BCS berth.
Regardless, Bielema would probably be quick to remind everyone that the Big Ten has only run half its course and there is plenty of madness still to come.
Would you cheer for MSU to win the Big Ten if it helps UW earn a BCS berth? E-mail Parker at pjgabriel@dailycardinal.com.
