The 2010 race for the governor's mansion just got interesting. Gov. Jim Doyle's recent announcement that he will not run for a third term initially came as a shock, but quickly made sense. Doyle's stumpy approval ratings would have made the 2010 battle difficult, even in the current era of Democratic dominance.
It's unclear if Doyle was completely straightforward when explaining why he won't run. He claimed to believe a governor should only serve two terms. Why hadn't he mentioned this belief sooner? Perhaps it was an excuse for him to step down without admitting he might not win this time while fitting in a slam against four-term Republican governor Tommy Thompson.
I'll give Big Jim the benefit of the doubt and assume he is honest and ready to be done. I could blabber about all his achievements, but like Doyle himself, they are big yet forgettable. Where the excitement lies is in the upcoming primaries, particularly the Democratic scramble.
The Republican race is practically decided. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker ran for governor in '06, has statewide appeal among conservatives and has managed to frequently force himself into the news cycle. His name is on the tips of Republican tongues and in the Democratic crosshairs. He will be the Republican nominee, and perhaps governor if the Democrats run a weak candidate.
Former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann will put up a primary fight, but this time, Walker will be victorious early on as he seems just too formidable of a foe. Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen has managed to stay in the headlines, but he comes off as an über-conservative and has waited too long to portray himself as the inevitable Republican nominee in a party that often nominates the next-in-line. Walker bowed out in the last gubernatorial race for Republican candidate Mark Green. Now it's his turn.
On the left, the field is wide open and the nomination ripe for the taking. The Democrats have no clear frontrunner and whoever wants to run has a year and a half to do so.
Although Wisconsin is moderate, it tilts Democratic. The left lean and the current, though dying, distrust of Republicans nationally, give any Democrat a boost even before announcing.
Technically, the only announced candidate is Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton. Her chances of becoming the first female governor of Wisconsin are slim at best. Despite holding an executive state office, she has limited statewide fame and will need to overcome the negative first impression many voters will have of her airy, young voice and Madison insider status.
Dane County executive Kathleen Falk lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary to Doyle and lost the attorney general's race to Van Hollen. She's electable in Dane County, but Wisconsin as a whole does not fully appreciate Madison liberals. Although it's embarrassing that Wisconsin has never had a female governor, it looks like neither leading female candidate will make it to the top of the ticket in 2010.
Herb Kohl, the wealthiest member of the U.S. Senate, could buy the governorship if he wanted, but he has signaled that he will stay in Washington.
State Senator Jon Erpenbach, D-Waunakee would make for a good Democratic primary contender. He's formerly from the Madison area, is Russ Feingold's former brother-in-law and introduced the Healthy Wisconsin legislation into the state senate. But his strong ties to health-care reform would hurt him in the more conservative regions of the state during a general election. At this stage of his career, Erpenbach is better suited for an office like the 2nd Congressional District. Either way, Erpenbach announced he is running for re-election to the state Senate and will not join the governor's race in 2010.
It would appear that Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is the Democratic frontrunner, despite not announcing yet. His recent rise to local hero and national news story doesn't hurt his chances. As he left the Wisconsin State Fair with his family on August 15, Barrett stumbled across a grandmother and her grandchild being accosted by the child's father. Barrett approached the scene, began dialing 911 and was attacked with a pipe by the father. Barrett wound up in the hospital with missing teeth and a broken hand after landing a punch on the alleged assailant. The next day, President Obama called Barrett to commend him for his bravery.
Now the state knows him and Milwaukee loves him even more. But the rest of the state does not love Milwaukee. Could Milwaukee's rough condition hurt Barrett's chances?
My candidate of choice is Ron Kind, a 46-year-old U.S. Congressman from La Crosse representing Wisconsin's third district. He was a football star in school with degrees from Harvard and the London School of Economics. From his ""kindly"" name to his golden-boy story to his moderate track record, Kind would make the most viable candidate in the general election. However, he lacks one thing—statewide appeal. Kind is well known in his district and among active Democrats, but he does not yet have enough name recognition across Wisconsin to win a statewide election. If he runs, he must run a forceful primary campaign. If Kind can introduce himself effectively, he could be Wisconsin's next governor and one step closer to the White House.
Kind would make a competitive candidate, in part, because of his appeal to younger voters. Fresh off the youth-fueled Obama bonanza, Kind could take a play or two from his party's playbook, capitalize off his own relatively young age, and win by turning out twentysomething liberals. A combination of moderate voters, solid Democrats, and young voters could forge a sizeable mandate and effective governing coalition. The student vote can't hurt a campaign. Involving a large number of students in a gubernatorial election would be a new concept in Wisconsin, but it could be done. Kind is the caliber of candidate whose track record and persona could persuade students that he will fight for us.
If Kind and Walker win their respective primaries, the 2010 general election could be a worthy match-up. A battle between two middle-aged white males both trying to prove they love Wisconsin the most may seem uninteresting, but it could make the race about issues. The two men govern differently and hold very different principles; Kind is a moderate progressive and Walker is a reactionary conservative. A discussion on opposing ideas would be better than the typical character attacks and negative campaigning experienced year after year. Perhaps that's too much to expect.
Jamie Stark is a sophomore planning to major in journalism and political science. Please send responses to opinion@dailycardinal.com.
