I went home this past weekend to visit my folks who live in the greater Green Bay area. I read in the paper that my favorite childhood collegiate hoops team - the UW-Green Bay Fighting Phoenix - had a game Saturday night against in-state rival UW-Milwaukee. I decided to go to the game and watched the Phoenix narrowly claim a four point victory over the Panthers. The teams are No. 2 and 3 respectively in the Horizon League standings behind nationally ranked No. 15 Butler.
While watching the game, I thought about how nice it was to see UW-Green Bay playing well. At a record of 19-6, the school is enjoying its best season since 1995-'96, which is the last time it made the NCAA tournament. If Butler loses just one more conference game, the Phoenix will likely be co-champions in the Horizon League. But UW-Milwaukee is doing well also, with a 9-4 conference record and only a handful of losses to solid teams like Marquette, Wisconsin and Butler. They have a shot at winning the Horizon League tournament and making it into the NCAA tournament.
Three teams from the Horizon League are looking good this year. Which got me thinking about at-large bids in the NCAA tournament, and that however unlikely it is, it is feasible that three teams from the Horizon League could make it in. Which got me thinking about how many of the at-large bids are going to the nine former- or currently-ranked Big East teams. Then how many will go to the seven former- or currently-ranked Big Ten teams and the six from the ACC and the five from the Pac-10.
And after my thoughts had wandered on to how many different No. 1 teams there have been in the last five weeks and how many times I heard national pundits say UNC could never be beaten, then that Wake Forest could go undefeated, and now that UConn might win out, I eventually had an epiphany.
There are an awful lot of overrated college basketball programs this year.
I am not trying to say that UNC and Wake and UConn are bad teams. They are all good and all worthy of the top-10 rankings they hold. But to hear Dick Vitale during the game between UNC and Michigan State allude to UNC's first five bench players as a potential top 25 team on their own is a bit exaggerated.
To give Tennessee a No. 14 preseason ranking based on the reputation of last year was a bit overzealous. To continue to have Michigan State mill around as one of the top 15 in the country despite losses to Maryland, Penn State and Northwestern is a bit generous.
Horizon League aside - at the risk of hypocrisy - it seems as though every week, one blowout victory from a big name school makes them look invincible for the rest of the season, yet the very next week, they lose. Syracuse gets to No. 9 in the polls, then drops one to Cleveland State (ironically from the Horizon League) the same day. Wake Forest becomes the nation's new No. 1, then loses to hapless Georgia Tech. Notre Dame climbs to No. 13, then drops seven games in a row.
I understand we need to chalk a lot up to the satirical nature of college basketball. Cinderella stories do happen and we all know that the chances of having another team like the '76 Hoosiers are basically nil. Of course the No. 1 team in the country is going to lose at some point, and teams that were good last year can turn to duds in the offseason.
But the unfortunate reality is that teams like Notre Dame, who at one time was among the nation's elite, will likely get an at-large nod into the tournament over UW-Green Bay next month despite being four places apart in the RPI ratings. Why? Notoriety. They were overrated and in the national limelight. A couple more Big East wins to keep them above .500 and they will be back on the scene as a national contender.
Let's be honest, rankings do little more than give us the flavor of the week and inflate reputations. When tournament time rolls around, three more No. 12 seeds will knock off No. 5 seeds as usual and the underappreciated will have their vengeance. So what if the Big East could squeeze nine teams into the top 25 in December? By March, half of them will not see a third round. They ought to soak up the attention now, because all eyes are on the little guys in just a matter of weeks.
Do you want to talk about college hoops with Andy? E-mail him at avansistine@wisc.edu.
