Is there anything in the world less reliable than preseason rankings or predictions? It doesn't matter if we're talking college football, the NBA or curling. How can you honestly predict how good a team is without seeing it play?
Well, the truth is, sports would not be sports without predictions. So, unlike the numerous members of the media who get paid to lie - okay, not lie, but give their best"" guess - and tell the public with a straight face that Notre Dame was one of the top 25 football teams in the country in August, I will give my Big Ten basketball predictions after actually sitting down and getting a chance to see these guys play.
The Contenders
Indiana is my favorite for the title. Freshman guard Eric Gordon might be the best player in the nation, but fellow freshman Jordan Crawford will be the player who takes this team to the top - provided, of course, he doesn't get any more suspensions. If Gordon is the Greg Oden, then Crawford is his Mike Conley. Junior swingman Jamarcus Ellis is the junior college transfer no one knows about, but coaches within the conference will notice him shortly.
Four and half years ago I saw Ellis, a Chicago native, deliver the biggest block I have ever seen in my life. Ever. It was in a high school game, and I haven't seen a block like it in college or the NBA. He blocked it in front of the rim and sent the ball bouncing off the wall of the gym at least 15 rows deep.
Oh, and then there is senior forward D.J. White, who is arguably the best big man in the conference. The Hoosiers (4-1) lost to an underrated Xavier team, but I expect them to get better throughout the year, much like the Buckeyes did last season.
This team won't lose at home, but will have tough ones at Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan State. For Badger fans, there is a good chance both teams will be undefeated in conference play when the Hoosiers come to the Kohl Center Jan. 31.
Michigan State (4-1) is No. 2 in the conference, but I haven't been terribly impressed thus far. The Spartans should have beaten No. 1 UCLA, but the Bruins were without Darren Collison and their late collapse was pretty embarrassing.
Any team that returns five starters and adds three talented freshmen deserves its praise, but how good are those starters?
Senior guard Drew Neitzel is great and junior forward Goran Sutton has gotten far better than I ever expected, but will sophomore Raymar Morgan become the star people expect him to be?
Right now their stat sheet looks eerily similar to Wisconsin's a year ago, with Morgan and Neitzel as the only two double-digit scorers. Sutton needs to be consistent and freshmen Chris Allen and Kalin Lucas need to contribute. But more than anything else, junior forward Marquise Gray needs to give more than his current 6.8 points per game.
I like Wisconsin over Ohio State, and yes, only because of what I have seen so far. I knew this was going to be one of those patented Bo Ryan teams that would play better than they really are. The loss to Duke hurts, but the Badgers' 5-0 start with an average margin of victory of 33.6 points was impressive. A tough non-conference schedule will tell us more.
This team had the right parts, but it needed to establish a go-to guy. I was just hoping that would happen by January, but sophomore guard Trevon Hughes emerged from the pack on Day One.
The Badgers don't play at Michigan State and only face Ohio State once. If they can protect their home court against the Hoosiers and the Spartans, we'll be talking about more than just a third-place finish.
The Buckeyes (4-1) have been bipolar so far, and who can blame them? They are essentially the same team as last year in that they have some good veterans mixed in with some great freshmen.
The problem is that those freshmen are Kosta Koufos and Jon Diebler, not Oden and Conley. Head coach Thad Matta will get some consistency out of this team by January, which will make them a tough team to beat.
Still, the winner of the Big Ten will be the team that beats the other top teams. The Buckeyes won't be that team by March.
The Sleepers
Illinois is a very talented team that still can't find that go-to-guy on offense. Senior Shaun Pruitt is wildly overrated when the Illini have the ball, and for whatever reason junior Chester Frasier isn't even half as good as Dee Brown was. Junior college transfer Rodney Alexander will help immediately, but he will have to be much better than last year's transfer, Trent Meacham, who is still in the starting lineup.
Illinois chances of sneaking up on people depend on the often-injured Brian Randle who could be the top defensive player in the conference. Randle is already banged up, however - not exactly a good sign seeing as how the advent calendars aren't even out yet.
Purdue lost a lot of talent when Carl Landry graduated, but Chris Kramer is joined by a stellar freshman class. Boilermaker fans are excited about head coach Matt Painter's recruiting abilities, but now he will have to prove that he can coach these young players if he wants to compete for the conference title this season. Purdue could make the NCAA Tournament again, but is probably a year away from being a conference favorite.
I gave Penn State more credit than they deserved last November, but it could be warranted this season. Senior Geary Claxton and junior Jamelle Cornley were third team all-conference and honorable mention respectively last year and should be even better this season.
Still, there are better players at the SERF than the ones that complemented the Nittany Lions' big two last season. Do they have more help this season? Probably, but I'm not sure it's enough to put together a winning conference season.
The Cellar Dwellers
Steve Spurrier had a 6-6 record at South Carolina this season. Nick Saban was 6-6 at Alabama. The point is, just because the Gophers scored a big-name coach doesn't mean they are all the sudden going back to the Final Four. Minnesota will be better and Tubby Smith did announce a pretty decent recruiting class two weeks ago, but the maroon and gold will need to be patient. The goal this year should be the NIT - or maybe that new College Basketball Invitational.
Michigan and Iowa are the other two schools with new coaches, but there will be more rebuilding in Iowa City and Ann Arbor than in Minneapolis. Both the Wolverines and Hawkeyes saw a lot of players graduate right after their coaches left town.
Tyler Smith's transfer to Tennessee really hurt Iowa. He was supposed to be the Hawks star for three more years, but new head coach Todd Lickliter will have to move on without him.
John Beilein, meanwhile, should be able to build a decent program at Michigan, but it will take awhile. I loved his players at West Virginia - and their names (remember Mike Gansey and Kevin Pittsnoggle?) This year these two teams will struggle, however.
Northwestern actually brought in some good freshmen, but as much as it pains me to say it, the Wildcats will miss Tim Doyle's assists and Vince Scott's rampant gum chewing. Bill Carmody has been trying to prove that he can get more than Chicago's scraps and Michael Thompson is certainly one of the better players out of the area. How much will he be able to help Sterling Williams (one of Chicago's scraps) and Kevin Coble this season, though? Again, check back next November.
E-mail Adam at hoge@wisc.edu
