As experts and fans picked apart the Big Ten schedule in the preseason to choose a conference winner, those looking at Wisconsin's schedule couldn't help but notice the two game stretch in early November that pits UW against Ohio State and Michigan on back-to-back weekends.
Just based on the schedules, no one was going out on a limb by saying November would decide the Big Ten Champion. Starting Nov. 3, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan will all play each other over the course of three weeks - a dream come true for the networks, the conference and the fans.
On paper, we could have fast forwarded to the final three weeks, but that's why they play the games.
November will still be when the Big Ten is decided, but no longer are Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan looking at an easy ride to the final three games of the season. In fact, I argue that heading to Illinois and Penn State on back-to-back weekends will be tougher than the Ohio State-Michigan stretch in November for the Badgers.
The obvious evidence to support that argument is that Wisconsin gets Michigan at home, whereas over the next two weeks the Badgers will only see Camp Randall during practice. But I think the matchups are tougher as well.
The spread offense has killed Wisconsin already this season and Illinois runs the best spread the Badgers will see all year. The Illini average just under 256 rushing yards a game, led by junior running back Rashard Mendenhall who averages 122 yards per game. Sophomore quarterback Juice Williams and freshman wideout Arrelious Benn both get carries and run the ball effectively as well.
Penn State, meanwhile, does not seem as scary as once thought as it stands 0-2 in the Big Ten after two weeks, but both losses came on the road. It's hardly a sin to lose in Ann Arbor, Mich., and the Badgers might find out this weekend that losing in Champaign, Ill., isn't that hard to do either. The Nittany Lions return home this weekend to beat up on struggling Iowa, the perfect opponent to use to get ready for the Badgers. And oh yeah, Wisconsin is their homecoming game too.
Ohio State and Michigan are obviously going to be tough victories. Still, with the way UW has defended the spread offense this season, it wouldn't be inconceivable to think Illinois will put up 40 points Saturday. Luckily, Williams couldn't complete a pass to Ocho Cinco"" right now so 30 points is more realistic. I'll take the more traditional Big Ten matchup against Ohio State and Michigan right now. Penn State will be a more traditional matchup as well, but I worry more about playing in Happy Valley than at Ohio Stadium.
I know, I know. Right now I am committing the No. 1 sin of the Ten 1-0 Commandments by looking ahead at the schedule, but ironically I'm proving why the 1-0 mentality works. Everyone (and I mean the coaches and players too) looked at the schedule this season and knew that early November would be big - and it still is. But sadly, there are a lot of fans who won't realize how big the next two weeks are for UW unless the Badgers lose one or both of the two games.
The good news is that Wisconsin is not the only school having to slow down and concentrate harder on October. Ohio State travels to Purdue this weekend, a game that I marked down as a Buckeye loss in July. Meanwhile, Michigan couldn't get past Appalachian State in Week 1, but the Wolverines are 2-0 in the Big Ten with conference title hopes still alive. However, they host Purdue in two weeks and head to Illinois in three weeks.
The national media might be down on the Big Ten, but the truth is that the conference has two Top 5 teams and the middle of the pack (Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois) has gotten a lot better. As a result, the marathon November finish has turned into more of a marathon seven game finish.
That marathon starts Saturday in Champaign for the Badgers.
E-mail Adam at hoge@wisc.edu to discuss how hard the rest of the Big Ten schedule will be for all teams.
