Three weeks into the college football season, and already there have been a fair number of upsets. The infamous Appalachian State triumph over No. 5 Michigan, South Florida's surprise victory against No. 17 Auburn, Utah's assault on No. 11 UCLA, and Kentucky's win over No. 9 Louisville are just some of the most notable games in the past month.
It makes you wonder who will fall next. But if you think about it from a different perspective, it should also make you wonder whether the AP polls are way out of whack or if these lower-caliber teams are for real.
The national ranking system is great, but so far this year, there have been some major flaws and inconsistencies. Obviously, someone - well, maybe everyone - missed the boat on Michigan. They dropped their first two games of the season, will likely fall next week to Penn State, and picked up their only win against a dismal Notre Dame team that has scored a total of 13 points all year. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but where did anyone get the notion that this team was worthy of a top five ranking to start the year? And what about Auburn? Ranked No. 18 to start the year, the Tigers come up with a so-so win against Kansas State and dropped two in a row to middle-of-the-road teams.
On the other end of the spectrum, it has certainly taken a long time for Boston College to get its due: Unranked to start the season, they soundly defeated three conference opponents in a row - including No. 15 Georgia Tech - to finally wind up at No. 14 this week. Why didn't anyone catch on that this team was so good at the start of the year?
It's not just the upsets that have been affecting the national rankings though, it's the close calls and the dogfights too. Obviously, one team that knows all too well that a win does not mean a better rank is Wisconsin. Two weeks, two wins, two drops of two spots in the polls, from No. 5 to No. 7 to No. 9. Okay, so the Badgers didn't blow out The Citadel last week, but they did put up 45 points and outscore the Bulldogs by 14. That is more than Texas can say about its victory over Central Florida on Saturday. The Longhorns squeaked by with a 35-32 win, but they barely lost ground on the national stage, slipping from No. 6 to No. 7. My guess is the only reason Texas lost ground is because the folks at the AP needed to make room for a hot Cal team near the top. The inconsistency here is frustrating.
And tell me why a No. 14 Nebraska team that put up 31 points in its loss to the No. 1 team in the country almost gets knocked out of the polls, while former-No. 9 Louisville loses to a Kentucky team that received no votes for a national ranking last week and only drops nine spots to No. 18.
It's like the AP voters are having just as tough of a time getting the hang of football as Michigan and Auburn so far this season.
But looking at these phenomena from another direction, maybe the underdogs this season have not been getting enough credit and these wacky polls coming out every week are trying to correct that shortfall. Kentucky beats Louisville, so the AP says let's recognize the Wildcats by giving them a spot among the nation's elite and go easy on Louisville because, after all, the Wildcats proved that they were that good. Nebraska loses to USC, so the AP says shucks, we were right to think the Huskers were not nearly as good as the Spartans - let's dock 'em some more. Even Appalachian State, a Division I-AA team, has been receiving multiple votes for national rankings every week since its win over Michigan. Can you recall the last time something like that has ever happened? I sure can't.
Give respect to teams like Appalachian State, Southern Florida and Utah that have marched into tough games classified as second-rate and come out victorious. Maybe the truth is that the ranked teams who get beat are not necessarily bad on any given week. Even in the case where The Citadel put up a good fight against the Badgers, maybe the truth is the underdog is just that good, that prepared and that focused on winning on that particular week.
As much as it is confounding to see teams flying into, out of, and all around the national standings, it is probably best to congratulate teams on the winning end of the upsets and the losing end of the close calls with a job well done and not blame the AP voters for being so far off this year. After all, they still have nine more weeks to get it right.
To give Andy your prediction for the next big upset in college football, e-mail him at avansistine@wisc.edu.
