I still remember my first thought when Zach Hampton knocked down Arkansas quarterback Casey Dick's Hail Mary to secure UW's second straight Capital One Bowl victory: This team is going to be something special next season. I can't wait for Sept. 1.""
Well, Sept. 1 is here, and aside from going 1-0 this week, the UW football team has lofty, yet realistic goals of a Big Ten Championship and possibly a chance to play for a national title.
Things will not be so easy for head coach Bret Bielema and Co. this year, though. The season will be far more difficult, with Ohio State and Michigan State back on the schedule. At the same time, the schedule is also filled with opportunities. There have never been as many ""what ifs"" around a team that went 12-1 under a first-year head coach as there were last season, but if UW would have had the opportunity to play Ohio State, the Badgers might have been in the Rose Bowl last January. And had UW played Michigan later in the season, instead of in its first Big Ten meeting of the season, things might have been tighter in Ann Arbor.
This season those ""what ifs"" are merely games on the schedule that UW has the opportunity to win. Thought 7-1 was good enough to win the Big Ten last season? Will it be good enough this season? Which teams are better and which are worse? Here are some things to look out for in the Big Ten this season:
*So long, cupcakes*
Once the conference schedule kicks off Sept. 22, you won't be seeing many blowouts across the Big Ten. After falling to Michigan in the opener last season, Wisconsin won its next four games over Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota and Purdue by a combined score of 165-41. The entire conference is better this season, so don't miss what should be some classic Big Ten games on that new cable network we can't watch.
Indiana might be the only team that did not improve, and that is only because of the tragic passing of head coach Terry Hoeppner who lost his battle with brain cancer. The Hoosiers' young squad was expected to take big strides in 2007, but as Northwestern did a year ago, IU will struggle to build a new identity after such a tumultuous off-season. Still, Indiana has the best return man in the conference - wideout James Hardy - who was slowed by a broken finger in training camp but looks poised to have a big year.
*The favorites*
Michigan and Wisconsin were picked to finish 1-2 in the preseason poll, but Ohio State and Penn State have legitimate shots as well and Iowa will contend with the easiest schedule of all the challengers.
The Wolverines might have the most explosive offense in the nation as they return senior quarterback Chad Henne, senior tailback Mike Hart, junior wideout Mario Manningham and the top lineman in the conference, fifth-year senior Jake Long. Still, Michigan only returns two other offensive starters, and it lost seven defensive starters including four who were drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. The revamped defense can work out its kinks early with four home games to start the season, but three of those games are against Oregon, Notre Dame and Penn State.
Ohio State, meanwhile, has even bigger questions as it lost 14 starters, including Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. Junior Todd Boeckman takes over as quarterback, and sophomore Chris Wells is the starting running back. Wells showed signs of greatness last season, but Boeckman is unproven.
The Nittany Lions could have a better shot than the Buckeyes as they host both Wisconsin and Ohio State. Head coach Joe Paterno returns 15 starters including senior Anthony Morelli and junior receivers Deon Butler and Derrick Williams. Penn State got a big win over Tennessee in the Outback Bowl last year - a win very similar to UW's victory over Auburn in the '06 Capital One Bowl that seemed to fuel the Badgers last year. Expect something similar to happen in Happy Valley.
Iowa lucks out by not having to play Michigan or Ohio State, but having to travel to Wisconsin and Penn State in the first three weeks of the Big Ten season isn't exactly easy.
Sophomore Jake Christensen takes over as quarterback with three new offensive linemen. Christensen might also be without sophomore receivers Dominique Douglas and Anthony Bowman, who were suspended after being arrested for using an unauthorized credit card. Iowa is a bowl team, but the Hawkeyes will be hard pressed to win the Big Ten unless they win their last five conference games - including at Purdue and at Northwestern. And let's not forget that this team lost six of its last seven games last season.
*Any Cinderellas?*
There are a number of teams that could either put the pieces together and finish as high as third place, or they could stumble and finish with only two conference wins. One of those teams is Purdue, whose offense could challenge Michigan statistically all season long. If they protect their home turf against Ohio State Oct. 6, the Boilermakers should finish at least 5-3 in the conference, and if they somehow pull off wins on the road over Michigan or Penn State, they will be near the top of the standings.
Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota and Northwestern are teams that could go either way as well. The Spartans are excited about new coach Mark Dantonio, who won't be afraid to run the ball with exciting junior tailback Javon Ringer. Drew Stanton is gone, however, and junior Brian Hoyer takes over at quarterback. Fans in East Lansing might be excited, but the schedule is too tough as MSU visits Notre Dame and Wisconsin in back-to-back weekends and finishes on a brutal stretch where they play at Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue in the final five weeks. A 2-6 Big Ten record would not be surprising.
Meanwhile, Ron Zook proved that he can recruit, but now Illini fans are looking for wins. Sophomore quarterback Juice Williams is an exciting player, but needs to limit his mistakes. Illinois is probably a year away from being able to win consistently on the road, and their home schedule isn't easy with Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan all traveling to Memorial Stadium.
Northwestern should be better as it returns 16 starters, including junior running back Tyrell Sutton. The Wildcats will struggle mightily to win more than three Big Ten games, but an incredibly easy non-conference schedule should leave NU with a bowl-eligible 6-6 record.
Finally, Minnesota has the chance to surprise with 17 returning starters and an energetic new head coach Tim Brewster. Brewster stole the show at Big Ten Media Days, proclaiming to both Michigan and Wisconsin that his team was ready to take back the Little Brown Jug and Paul Bunyan's Axe. Minnesota might have an outside shot at winning those games, but settling for another bowl appearance is more likely.
*Prediction*
With the conference as competitive from top to bottom as it is, the winner is going to be the team that makes the least amount of mistakes while playing great defense and winning the game on the ground. On paper, Wisconsin fits that description the best and unlike last season, the Badgers will have the opportunity to dictate which bowl game they end up in as they end the season at Ohio State, at home against Michigan and on the road at Minnesota.
Think I'm a homer? Last year I gave Bielema four Big Ten games at best, and he nearly won the thing. UW has the best defense in the conference and sophomore tailback P.J. Hill will be good enough to overcome any mistakes made by the quarterbacks.
I think Wisconsin will fall at Penn State but will win in Columbus, Ohio, where they have won three straight games, and the home field advantage will give UW the edge over Michigan. That leaves UW with at least a share of the Big Ten title with a 7-1 record and the tie-breaker over Michigan for the Rose Bowl.
The trusty BCS will decide the rest.
If you like the Badgers' chances of winning the Big Ten Conference as much as Adam, e-mail him at ""hoge@wisc.edu"":mailto:hoge@wisc.edu to share in his excitement.
