Heading into the New Hampshire primary Jan. 27, the Democrats have four serious candidates who could potentially run against President Bush in November: John Kerry, John Edwards, Howard Dean and Wesley Clark. However, according to UW-Madison political science professor Virginia Sapiro, with Kerry's victory in Iowa and both his and Edwards' New England roots, these two top runners in Iowa have the momentum heading into next week.
While Sapiro said there is still a long way to go in the primary process, she said the Iowa caucus proved Dean is not the steamroller people thought he was, and Kerry and Edwards
o longer need a coroner"" for their campaign.
Kathryn Neumeister, a UW-Madison sophomore who worked for Kerry's campaign in Iowa, said the precincts received the preliminary polls before the national media. She said the polls indicated Kerry was ahead, so his victory was not a complete surprise for the campaign workers.
Mike Pfohl, a UW-Madison senior who also worked for Kerry in Iowa, said that a week ago the volunteers were intimidated by Dean's campaign and the fact Dean had five times the number of volunteers as Kerry.
""When it comes down to it, voters weren't intimidated by it and it was electability and liability, and the average voter was not impressed by Dean's anger,"" he said.
Sapiro said the reactions of the three top candidates was very indicative of their future successes in New Hampshire. Kerry and Edwards spoke very seriously, being very gracious toward Gephardt, who dropped out from the race, she said.
""Dean just was wild and not nearly as impressive as the other two,"" she added. ""[Kerry and Edwards] were a lot more presidential.""
Both Kerry and Edwards are from New England, which, according to Sapiro, gives them a distinct advantage over Dean in New Hampshire. Many New Hampshire residents watch Boston television, she said, meaning the state is familiar with Kerry and his policies.
Another factor in the upcoming weeks for the Democratic candidates is the fact that important states like New Hampshire and Wisconsin have primaries, not caucuses.
Sapiro said in primaries, people do not have as much outside pressure from their neighbors, but instead go into voting booths and vote without discussion.
""[The primaries] won't be mediated by people sitting in living rooms and firehouses saying 'I don't know, what do you think?'""she said. Instead, she said this time voters will be heavily influenced by media coverage.
