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Turnout levels show difference in Democrat, GOP enthusiasm

By: Charles Brace /The Daily Cardinal  - February 21, 2008




20080221_news_turnout_story
By: Christopher Guess /The Daily Cardinal
Two students, above, register to vote in the Tuesday primary. Over 1.5 million people voted statewide, around 35 percent.

The Wisconsin primary election is over, but Wednesday vote totals show two parties with different amounts of enthusiasm.

Over 1.1 million residents voted in the Democratic primary Tuesday, including 9 percent who normally identify as Republicans, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

More people voted for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., who finished second in the Democratic race, than the 400,000 residents who voted in the Republican contest.

UW-Madison political science professor Kenneth Goldstein said the high turnout shows a greater level of enthusiasm on the Democratic side. He said it was an example of trends that had already been emerging around the country.

“A state like Wisconsin, four or five years ago, was pretty evenly divided.” Goldstein said. “We now see a seven or eight percentage point advantage for the Democrats.”

Mark Jefferson, executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party, said the turnout levels were close to what he expected.

He said because U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is the presumptive nominee, and because the Democratic race was more competitive, McCain did not have to campaign as aggressively in the state. National polls, according to Jefferson, show McCain is very close to U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in levels of support in Wisconsin.

Goldstein said the closeness of the Democratic race could account for lower Republican turnout, but the trend of increased Democratic participation was seen in earlier primaries when the Republican race was undecided.

Kathleen Dolan, associate professor of political science at UW-Milwaukee, said in an e-mail that dissatisfaction with President George Bush might be energizing some Democratic voters. However, she said it was possible some Republicans felt unmotivated due to McCain’s front-runner status.

“One danger for McCain, who is not yet loved among his party’s voters, is that many in the Republican base are not energized by his candidacy and decide to stay home in November,” Dolan said.

UW-Madison political science professor Kenneth Mayer said in an e-mail the Tuesday turnout levels do not necessarily mean the same will happen in November.

“The general election is a whole new ball game,” he said.



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