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Road to the white house

By: Charles Brace /The Daily Cardinal  - February 5, 2008




“Super Tuesday” is one of the most important days in Presidential politics, and it will likely to affect the two parties in different ways, according to political observers.

Twenty-four states hold primaries or caucuses Feb. 5, including Wisconsin’s neighboring states of Minnesota and Illinois.

UW-Milwaukee associate professor of political science Kathleen Dolan said the Republican race might be decided Tuesday if U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., wins convincingly.

“If John McCain wins a lot of states overwhelmingly, that might put the final nail in Mitt Romney’s coffin,” Dolan said, though she said the race still appears “fluid”.

The Democratic candidates, according to Dolan, are less likely to be knocked out of the race Tuesday. She said the large amount of money U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., raised in January could sustain his campaign even if he does not win as many states as U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

Dolan said if Clinton wins, the “media narrative” would make it appear to be less of an important victory than if Obama won. Obama appears to be getting more positive coverage from the press than Clinton, according to Dolan.

Charles Jones, UW-Madison emeritus professor of political science, also said the Democratic nomination would not be decided Tuesday. Jones said McCain is likely to do well, though he agreed many conservative Republicans have been dissatisfied with him in the past.

According to Jones, Obama benefited from other Democratic candidates leaving the race before “Super Tuesday.” Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., ended his campaign Jan. 30.

Jones said because many states, like California, award egates based on how a candidate does in a Congressional district, an overwhelming victory might be difficult for either Democrat.

UW-Madison E. Grodon Fox Professor of American Institutions John Cooper Jr. said Tuesday would be “decisive” for both parties, in different ways.

“I think John McCain is going to sow up the Republican nomination,” Cooper said. Cooper said former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee compete against one another for the conservative voters who dislike McCain. If one of them dropped out, the other would have a better chance of beating McCain, Cooper said.

According to Cooper, if Clinton were to win on Tuesday, it would not likely be by an overwhelming margin.

He said the Democratic Party “establishment” does not appear to be endorsing Clinton as much as previously thought, including the important “super delegates” that can remain unpledged until the national convention. Political experts also said despite predictions, it is difficult to guess what will occur Tuesday.

“It’s impossible to say. We didn’t expect Iowa to happen, we didn’t expect New Hampshire to happen,” Dolan said.




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